Weekend estimates: The Batman holds well to easily win the weekend

March 13, 2022

The Batman

The Batman is enjoying a strong second weekend, with Warner Bros. projecting it will fall just 51% from its opening frame, which translates into a decline of only 41% from last Friday, Saturday and Sunday combined. That’s a strong hold for a film that opened as big as it did, and that’s not the only good news at the box office this weekend, with the live event film BTS Permission to Dance on Stage Seoul, and Bollywood hit Radhe Shyam both posting strong earnings, and the seven other films in the top 10 all falling by less than 25% from last weekend.

Here’s how the domestic numbers look this morning…




As I mentioned in my prediction column on Friday, blockbuster openers have been falling by around two-thirds on their second weekend in recent months. Our model was a little more bullish, predicting a decline of 60% to $53.3 million. So hitting $66 million on its sophomore weekend is an excellent result for The Batman and augurs well for a strong run over the next few weeks.

It’s also another sign that the market as a whole is recovering as more COVID-related restrictions are lifted around the US and Canada, and people become more comfortable with the idea of going back to theaters. All told, the films for which we had predictions on Friday are running 17% ahead of expectations, with Death on the Nile performing particularly well, falling just 9% in its fifth weekend in theaters.

The result for BTS Permission to Dance is massive considering it played only on Saturday, and in just 803 theaters. Trafalgar Releasing is reporting that it grossed $32.6 million worldwide, making it the highest-earning event cinema release in history. It is Trafalgar’s fourth successful event release in partnership with the Korean pop sensations.

Also notable, although in keeping with most Bollywood releases without an official box office report, is Radhe Shyam, which is comfortably in the top ten with around $1.8 million.

Although the market as a whole is down quite steeply from last weekend, that’s entirely due to the lack of a major new release. That will unfortunately be true next weekend too, but the arrival of The Lost City on March 25 will end that dry spell, and there’s a potential big hit almost every weekend through April, May, June, and July. We almost certainly won’t get back to the total market size we saw in 2019, but it looks as though there could be some good months ahead for the theatrical business.

- Weekend studio estimates
- All-time top-grossing movies in North America
- All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Weekend Estimates, The Batman, Death on the Nile, Radhe Shyam, BTS Permission to Dance on Stage Seoul — Live Viewing