Weekend predictions: Spider-Man heading for sixth weekend win

January 28, 2022

Spider-Man: No Way Home

With no new wide releases, this weekend at the box office will have an eerie familiarity to it. There’s a good chance that Ghostbusters: Afterlife will be back in the top 10 in its eleventh weekend in release. Licorice Pizza is almost certain to celebrate ten weeks in release with another top 10 finish. And standing over everything will be Spider-Man: No Way Home, which should break $10 million in its seventh week in theaters, and top the chart for the sixth time. Spidey should end the weekend with around $735 million domestically, putting it $25 million behind Avatar in the all-time race.

Here’s what our model has to say about the weekend…





The lack of competition means that all films should have relatively modest declines this weekend. The model might be a little generous in its estimate for No Way Home, which fell 30% last weekend with similarly modest competition. If it falls another 30% this weekend it’ll just miss $10 million this time around. Personally, a little over $10 million seems most likely, but in any case the films current legs suggest it will overtake Avatar for third place all time by the end of February. Sony could give it a little boost to hit that figure if they want to, particularly with The Batman not arriving until the beginning of March.

For the rest of the films returning this weekend, the lack of new releases will help them pick up a few more dollars, but the market as a whole looks bleak right now, with something around $35 million expected from all films combined. The last time the market failed to hit $40 million was the weekend of May 21 last year. To be fair, weekend of January 29, 2021 produced a grand total of $11.76 million at the box office, so things have progressed, but we’re looking at several more tough weeks for theaters financially, unless the likes of Jackass or Moonfall break out.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, Moonfall, Licorice Pizza, jackass forever, Spider-Man: No Way Home