Weekend estimates: Old leads on lackluster weekend

July 25, 2021

Old

M. Night Shyamalan returns to the top of the box office charts this weekend, but he might be the only person celebrating as every opening and returning film in the top 10 looks set to underperform this weekend. Shyamalan’s new film, Old is coming closest to our model’s prediction with an opening of $16.5 million, which is 12% below what the model expected. Snake Eyes: G.I. Joe Origins will come second with $13.35 million, which is 15% behind expectations. Those results are both well within the model’s margin of error, but the collective performance of the market is troubling.





The three returning “blockbuster” films are the most cause for concern. Black Widow will decline about 55% in its third weekend with $11.6 million, which takes it to $154.8 million in total. F9’s $4.6 million is enough to maintain its lead at the top of the annual chart with $163.3 million to date, but is down 40% in its fifth weekend. Space Jam: A New Legacy will be off an eye-watering 69% in its second weekend, with Warner Bros. projecting $9.56 million for the weekend and $51.4 million to date.

The rapid decline of these tentpole releases is in stark contrast to the long legs enjoyed by films released in the first half of the year. One explanation touted for these sharp declines is the availability of the films on streaming platforms. That may be a factor (and it’s something I’m researching), but these three releases don’t provide much evidence for that. Black Widow, which is available as a PVOD purchase on Disney+, fell 67% in its second weekend. F9, which is currently playing solely in theaters (but will be available as a PVOD release on digital platforms very soon) also declined 67% on its second weekend. Space Jam is available at no extra charge on HBO Max and is down 69% in its second weekend. On the evidence of those numbers, availability at home doesn’t seem to have an impact on the second-weekend performance of a film.

If it’s not competition from the home market, then what’s causing these sharp declines? One explanation this weekend is that people are avoiding theaters again due to the rise in COVID cases around the country. The fact that the top six films collectively will earn 28% less than last weekend and 24% less than the model’s prediction is evidence for that. I’d be surprised if enthusiasm for going to the movies had declined by 25% in a week just due to the pandemic, but the pandemic plus the start of the Olympics might have that kind of effect. If Space Jam has lost 25% of its potential audience for those reasons this weekend, then that took about $3 million from its weekend tally, and it would have done around $12.75 million if it wasn’t facing those headwinds. That would still be a decline of 59% in its second weekend, which isn’t great, but is fairly close to the 53% drop for Tom and Jerry in its second weekend earlier this year.

Whatever the causes of this soft weekend at the box office, it’s a troubling sign for the recovery. If the market is going to return to normal by October (which is an assumption that our market model is based on), the overall box office take should be flat or rising on a weekend like this. The fact that it’ll be down quite substantially is bad news. The next two weekends will be key, with Jungle Cruise and The Suicide Squad both having the potential to do significant business. Let’s hope they deliver.

- Weekend studio estimates

Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Weekend Estimates, F9: The Fast Saga, The Suicide Squad, Jungle Cruise, Black Widow, Space Jam: A New Legacy, Tom and Jerry, Old, Snake Eyes: G.I. Joe Origins, M. Night Shyamalan