Weekend predictions: Marksman and Wonder Woman do battle for top spot

January 22, 2021

The box office race is overshadowed this weekend by a barrage of release date changes precipitated by the continued terrible situation with the pandemic across North America and a growing acceptance that movie theaters won’t all be open and operating under normal conditions for quite a while. The first domino to fall was No Time to Die, which has moved from April 2 to October 8. Our release schedule changes page has the gory details of all the changes announced by studios in the aftermath. The consensus seems to be that major releases definitely won’t be viable as theatrical-only releases until late April or early May, and the big guns are mostly settling in to the October through December timeframe. It might be a while before we see a tentpole come to theaters that isn’t also being quickly or simultaneously released for the home market, either on a streaming platform or as a PVOD release.

All that adds up to long theatrical runs by default for the films currently at the top of the box office chart. Here’s what our model thinks of them this weekend.

The Marksman is likely to fall fairly steeply this weekend after its decent $3.1-million debut. Declines around 50% have been the norm during the pandemic, and if it follows that rule there’s a good chance Wonder Woman 1984 will retake top spot. If Wonder Woman plays in roughly the same number of theaters as last weekend, it should have a strong hold and keep its weekend earnings over $2 million.

The Croods: A New Age can’t be entirely ruled out of contention for number one. It should fall a bit due to coming off the “holiday” weekend last weekend, but a decent hold would put it close to The Marksman and a virtual three-way tie at the top of the chart can’t be ruled out.

Bruce Nash

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Wonder Woman 1984, The Croods: A New Age, Honest Thief, The Marksman, Liam Neeson