Weekend predictions: can Let Him Go topple Come Play?
November 6, 2020
The race to be elected the top film at the box office this weekend is too close to call, according to our model, although the odds favor Let Him Go, which opens in 2,454 theaters, and has enough buzz to probably pull off a victory. Come Play would have to enjoy an unusually strong hold coming off Halloween weekend to secure a surprise win.
Let Him Go’s edge comes from having pedigree actors, Diane Lane and Kevin Costner in lead roles. The biggest risk is its R rating from the MPAA, which might cut into its audience somewhat. R-rated thrillers have struggled to top $10 million at the box office in recent times, and our model expects a movie like this to do around $6 million under normal conditions. Its 2,454 theater count reduces that by 9%, and our adjustment for the pandemic market takes off a further 66%. Once all that is taken into account the model puts its opening weekend at $1.9 million.
Come Play is expected to fall 46% from its opening to $1.676 million, and The War with Grandpa and Honest Thief are likely to be neck-and-neck in 3rd and 4th spot. The main remaining wildcard this weekend is Toy Story, which is being re-released by Disney and could do anything between $500,000 and $1.5 million, based on the performance of their other recent re-releases. The model puts its opening at $667,000, but there’s a great deal of uncertainty around that number.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Toy Story, The War with Grandpa, Come Play, Honest Thief, Let Him Go, Kevin Costner, Diane Lane