Mulan and I’m Thinking of Ending Things Give People Reasons to Stay Home
September 4, 2020
This year’s Labor Day weekend in the United States may prove to be historic. While Warner Bros. tests the viability of the theatrical market with a novel release strategy for Tenet, Disney is seeing how far it can get when it eschews theaters altogether with the Premium VOD release of Mulan on Disney+.
While it’s not in the same league as those $200-million behemoths, Charlie Kaufman’s psychological horror movie I’m Thinking of Ending Things provides some counter-programming, and is significant in its own right as part of another trend in the industry: major art-house film-makers finding a home in the home market.
This film was destined to be one of the biggest hits of the summer, and was widely expected earn $1 billion worldwide before the pandemic. While Disney is going ahead with a theatrical release in many international markets, they controversially decided to go direct to Disney+ with a Premium VOD release in countries where it is available. One likely driver for this decision was the success of Hamilton’s debut over July 4 weekend, which brought many new subscribers to the platform.
Their experiment with PVOD may be short-lived if they don’t see substantial business this weekend, but a $30 price tag is cheaper than taking a family to watch Tenet in theaters, and may be enticing to anyone who doesn’t yet feel ready to venture out. While Disney is unlikely to release any numbers, if Tenet’s performance is mediocre in comparison, they will surely be tempted to release Black Widow the same way in November.
The stakes for the industry as a whole couldn’t be higher. At the extreme end, a poor performance for Tenet and great numbers for Mulan could practically spell the end of the theatrical business, at least in the short term. At the other end of the spectrum, Tenet could be seen as the film that saved movie theaters and Mulan the one that killed PVOD. The actual result will likely be somewhere in between, and therefore messier in terms of learning concrete lessons. And, to the chagrin of industry watchers, there’s a good chance neither studio will announce numbers. Warner Bros. is keeping its cards very close to its chest, and may see little upside in reporting numbers, and Disney will most likely follow tradition by not reporting on VOD performance (and the fact that Disney+ is a closed platform will make it hard for anyone outside the studio to know exactly how well Mulan performs).
Given these factors, we might be on the brink of another change in the industry: less reporting of numbers. As always, we’ll be reporting everything that’s publicly available, but Tenet and Mulan will also test how much studios are willing to share when there’s no prospect of a major film breaking any records, and the potential for significant backlash from some segments of the industry (theater chains specifically) if the reporting of numbers is handled poorly.
Charlie Kaufman’s latest outing is a psychological horror movie starring Jessie Buckley and Jesse Plemons as a couple whose unexpected detour during a road trip turns into a terrifying journey through their fragile psyches. The film is getting excellent reviews, and should be a hit on the platform.
While it’s not potentially industry-changing in the way that the battle between Mulan and Tenet may prove to be, Ending Things is a great example of the kind of movie that would, just a few years ago, be a piece of Summer counter-programming from the likes of Fox Searchlight or Focus Features. As such, it follows in the footsteps of Da 5 Bloods, Eurovision, Extraction, and The Old Guard, all of which would have traditionally filled available theater screens between the tentpoles.
Netflix has spent heavily to create a line-up of films from major actors and film-makers that is competitive with other studios, and the lack of theatrical business this Summer has really shown how much it has caught up. Two other films will grab the headlines this weekend, but I’m Thinking of Ending Things is also an important marker in a changing business.
Away: Season One
The Boys: Season Two
Bookmarks: Celebrating Black Voices - Season One - Netflix
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Mulan (Disney+)
I’m Thinking of Ending Things (Netflix)
TV Show Highlights
Netflix
Hilary Swank stars as an astronaut beginning a mission to Mars, and dealing with leaving her husband and daughter behind. The show’s critical reception has been positive enough that it is worth checking out, especially if you are a fan of the cast.
Amazon Prime
The second season of this deconstruction of the super hero genre hits Amazon Prime on Friday. The first season earned excellent reviews and the second season’s reviews are even better. It is not a busy week, but this one would have stood out regardless of the competition.
Other TV Shows
Chef’s Table: BBQ - Netflix
Spirit Riding Free: Riding Academy - Part Two - Netflix
Filed under: Home Market Releases, Streaming Releases, Mulan, Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, Da 5 Bloods, The Old Guard, Hamilton, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Spirit Riding Free: Riding Academy, The Boys, Away, Bookmarks: Celebrating Black Voices, Chef’s Table, Josh Charles, Jesse Plemons, Hilary Swank, Charlie Kaufman, Jessie Buckley, Talitha Bateman