Weekend Predictions: Trio of Films Opening Wide could be Last Wide Releases for Weeks
March 12, 2020
Wash your hands. This could be the worst weekend of the year at the box office, perhaps even the worst weekend of the past several years. COVID-19 has caused the suspension of the NBA and NHL seasons, while practically every wide release for the next several weeks has been pushed back indefinitely. This news is very likely going to hurt ticket sales as people are taking the concept of “self isolation” seriously. Last weekend, Onward and Sonic the Hedgehog were hit the hardest, which makes sense, as families would be the first to avoid going out because of a pandemic, but now I think general audiences will also avoid crowds. Worse still, none of the three wide releases were expected to be anything more than midlevel hits at the best of times. Now, I wouldn’t be surprised if none of Bloodshot, The Hunt, and I Still Believe hit $10 million over the weekend. This weekend last year, Captain Marvel earned $67.99 million during its second weekend of release. That will be more than the three new releases will open with combined. It could be more than their combined domestic totals.
Onward is a family film and as such, it is more susceptible to outside factors, like a massive storm or in this case a disease outbreak. With the COVID-19 situation escalating, we could see a collapse on top with this film falling below $20 million. Hopefully that’s not the case, but I fear $22 million is the best the film will manage this weekend. This will still be enough for first place by a large margin.
I Still Believe will likely be the biggest new release of the weekend with about $11 million. Its reviews are mixed, but that’s still better than most faith-based films earn, so perhaps its crossover appeal will help it thrive under difficult circumstances.
The Invisible Man it becoming one of the biggest surprise hits of the year and it should continue to perform well with $9 million over the weekend. The film won’t get to $100 million domestically, but it will come close enough to break even before it reaches the home market.
Bloodshot is earning the worst reviews of the weekend and that’s not going to help its box office numbers. Furthermore, while Vin Diesel has incredible box office numbers throughout his career, nearly all his ticket sales have been in monster franchises and when he tries to do films like this, they tend to struggle. On the high end, it could earn second place with about $12 million. On the low end, it will earn about half that figure. I’m going with $8 million during its opening weekend.
The Hunt is trying to prove there’s no such thing as bad publicity. The film has generated a lot of controversy, as it is about a group of conservative Americans being hunted by liberal elites. Unfortunately, while it has the best reviews of the weekend, its Tomatometer Score is still below the overall positive level, so controversy might be its biggest selling point. In fact, it might be its only selling point. Look for just over $6 million, which is barely enough to avoid the Mendoza Line.
Wash your damn hands.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Onward, Sonic The Hedgehog, Bloodshot, The Invisible Man, The Hunt, I Still Believe, Vin Diesel