Friday Estimates: Sonic Laps the Competition

February 15, 2020

Sonic the Hedgehog

Love is in the air and it is moving fast. Sonic the Hedgehog decimated the competition, and predictions, earning $21.0 million on Friday. To put this into perspective, the next-best film is projected to earn just over $21 million over the four-day weekend. The film’s reviews have slipped, but they do remain in the overall positive level, while its A from CinemaScore is going to be a big help going forward. Paramount is projecting $60.0 million for the four-day weekend, but I suspect they are being overly cautious. Either way, it is clearly the studio’s biggest hit in over a year and will become their first $100-million movie since Bumblebee.

If the estimate holds, it will also be the best single day for a movie based on a game, bettering the $20.575 million earned by Pokémon: Detective Pikachu on its opening day back in September.

Birds of Prey managed second place on Friday with $6.35 million, down just 51% from its opening Friday. This is better than expected and means it should earn just over $21 million over the four-day weekend. This might actually be enough to get it to $100 million domestically.

The Photograph was right behind with $6.28 million on Friday and Universal is projecting just over $14 million during the full four-day weekend. This is a little lower than we predicted, but still a good start given its production budget. Add in the best reviews of the weekend and its B plus from CinemaScore and it could have decent legs going forward.

Fantasy Island managed $5.4 million on Friday and Sony is projecting a $13 million four-day debut off of that result. Its reviews are not helping, nor is its C minus from CinemaScore. That said, the film cost $7 million to make and the studio’s share of the opening could be more than that, so this is still a strong start for a low-budget horror movie.

Bad Boys for Life rounded out the top five with $4.03 million on Friday putting it on pace for nearly $12 million over the four-day weekend.

And then we get to Downhill. That film debuted in seventh place with $2.03 million on Friday, putting it on pace for just under $5 million. It will miss the Mendoza Line over the three-day weekend. Its reviews are merely mixed, but it earned a D plus from CinemaScore, so audiences are really not happy.

- Friday Box Office Chart
- Thursday Box Office Chart
- Biggest days for movies based on games
- Biggest weekends for movies based on games

- Thursday Night Previews: Sonic Speeds its way to $3 million
- Weekend Predictions: Will Audiences Love Sonic and the Other New Releases
- Theater Counts

Filed under: Friday Estimates, Bad Boys For Life, Sonic The Hedgehog, Fantasy Island, Birds of Prey (And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn), Downhill, The Photograph