Weekend Predictions: The Box Office Looks far from Super
January 31, 2020
It is Super Bowl weekend, which is one of the biggest media events of the year. Even people who have no interest in the NFL tend to at least pay attention to the game. Because of that, no studio wants to release a typical film this time of year and instead focus on counter-programming, usually female-led counter-programming. Neither The Rhythm Section nor Gretel and Hansel are expected to challenge Bad Boys for Life for first place, but the pair could be in a close race with each other. This weekend last year, no movie earned $10 million or more, while Miss Bala opened with less than $10 million. 2020 should end the month on a huge winning note.
Bad Boys for Life fell 46% during its second weekend of release and it would be odd for it to fall significantly more during its third weekend of release. A film’s sophomore stint is usually the weekend with the greatest drop-off, until it starts shedding theaters at a fast pace. That said, the Venn Diagram between fans of action movies and fans of contact sports like football is practically just a circle, so I don’t think the film will hold on a lot better either. Look for between $19 million and $20 million over the weekend for a total of close to $150 million after just three weeks of release.
1917 will remain in second place over the weekend, likely with between $8 million and $9 million. The film already has more than most people thought it would finish with and if it does well on Oscar night next weekend, it could remain in the top five a little while longer.
Dolittle should land in third place with between $7 million and $8 million. The film is going to lose a lot of money, but maybe if its legs are long, it can at least save face.
It is a close call between The Rhythm Section and Gretel and Hansel. The former has the better cast in terms of star power, but weaker reviews. Additionally, while Gretel and Hansel’s reviews are better, they are still not great. Finally, Gretel and Hansel is the third low-budget horror film to come out this year and the previous two such movies struggled at the box office, so I don’t think this one will do much better. Both films should earn between $6 million and $7 million over the weekend and I really don’t know which one will get off to the faster start. In fact, I suspect they will change places on the daily chart and I won’t be surprised if Sunday’s estimates and Monday’s final numbers have the two films changing places.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Bad Boys For Life, Dolittle, The Rhythm Section, The Grudge, The Turning, 1917, Gretel & Hansel