Weekend Predictions: The Box Office will have a Gentle Weekend
January 23, 2020
It is a post-holiday weekend and the weekend before the Super Bowl. Needless to say, there are no prime releases coming out in theaters. The Gentlemen is the widest release of the week a should open in the top five, even if it doesn’t compete for top spot. The Turning is a low-budget horror movie, and we’ve already had one of those struggle at the box office this year. There’s little hope this one will be better. Finally, there’s The Last Full Measure, which is only opening nationwide, not even semi-wide. It’s not even going to make the top ten, so we will talk about that film with the other limited releases. This leaves Bad Boys for Life as the only real contender for first place this weekend. The question is more about how far it falls from last weekend. As for this weekend last year, we were in a similar situation with the two new releases, The Kid Who Would Be King and Serenity, failing to make any real impact, leaving Glass in first place for the second weekend in a row. The Upside was the only other film to earn more than $10 million that weekend, while this weekend we will have four, perhaps even five films above $10 million. 2020 should walk away with an easy win.
Last weekend, Bad Boys for Life set the record for the biggest MLK opening weekend. And, it did so with overwhelmingly positive reviews and an A-rating from CinemaScore, so it should have good legs. Granted, it is a post-holiday weekend, so a 50% drop-off is almost inevitable, but I don’t think it will fall much further than 55%. This gives the film a range of $27 million to $31 million. I’m going with a sophomore stint of $29 million, which is more than enough to get to $100 million in under 10 days of release.
1917 will probably remain in second place over the weekend, as it has better reviews than its Dolittle does and its theater count is growing, in part due to its Oscar nominations. Look for close to $13 million over the weekend, which may or may not be enough to hit $100 million by the end of business on Sunday.
Dolittle is a family film and that should give it the edge over 1917, as they tend to have longer legs. However, family films also tend to earn CinemaScores in the A range, while this one only managed a B-rating. Because of this, I think this film will fall a little further than most and land at $12 million.
The Gentlemen has already opened internationally and it has gotten off to an okay-ish start. It very likely won’t be a major hit here, but I also don’t think it will bomb during its opening weekend. The film is earning solid reviews and Guy Ritchie has had success with this genre, so the film could open in second place with just over $13 million. I think a close fourth place with just under $12 million is more likely, but that’s still not a bad start. After all, the film very likely had a low budget, so it won’t need to earn $100 million worldwide to break even.
The Turning could earn as much as $10 million over the weekend. I know its reviews won’t help its box office chances, but it will be the only horror film in the top ten, so the lack of direct competition will be an asset. The film is opening in fewer theaters than The Grudge did, so I don’t think it will do as well in total, but its theater average should be similar, giving it a weekend haul of about $9 million.
Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Last Full Measure, Bad Boys For Life, Dolittle, The Grudge, The Turning, The Gentlemen, 1917, Guy Ritchie