Weekend Estimates: Bad Boys Blow Up Record Book
January 19, 2020
The weekend estimates are a little more estimated than usual, because it is a long weekend, so studios are predicting Monday’s results the day before they happen, and there’s a larger margin of error than usual. That said, Bad Boys for Life is going to have no trouble topping the old MLK long weekend opening record, as it is projected to earn $59.2 million / $68.1 million over the weekend. Its three-day figure is almost $10 million more than the previous record holder, Ride Along, earned over three days. And yes, it has the opening weekend record. American Sniper was a December release that expanded wide on MLK weekend. On another positive note, the film’s reviews have risen to 76% positive, which is enough to earn a Certified Fresh rating from Rotten Tomatoes, although the site appears to be slow on awarding that. Additionally, the film earned an A-rating from CinemaScore, so audiences liked the film even more than critics did. The audience was 39% African-Americans, compared to 33% Caucasian, while it was 61% male. No real surprises there. The film is earning $38.6 million on 8,200 screens in 39 markets during its international debut, including stellar openings in Germany ($5.1 million) and the U.K. ($5.0 million).
Dolittle’s family-friendly nature is helping it remain in second place with an estimated opening of $22.5 million / $30 million over the weekend. This is better than expected by most people, but it is still far from what is needed to break even. It is all about saving face at this point. Unfortunately, its reviews and its B-rating from CinemaScore are not going to make that easy. Unsurprisingly, the film’s target audience skewed young with kids 12 and under representing 26% of the total audience. Those 35 years old and older were 28% of the audience, but I’m willing to bet most of them were parents with kids 12 and under. The gender breakdown was 51% male, while Caucasians made up 59% of the ethnic demographic, ahead of Hispanics at 21%. Internationally, the film is earning $17.2 million in 46 markets for an early total of $27.3 million. This includes a $2.37 million debut on 331 screens in Australia and a $2.16 million debut on 356 screens in Indonesia. The film did better in both markets than it did domestically, but not enough given its $175 million production budget. On the positive side, Dolittle has yet to open in most major markets, so it has a chance of making an impact on the international scene. I just can’t see it doing well enough to break even.
1917 is earning $22.1 million / $27.0 million over the weekend, which would push its running tally past $80 million domestically. The film is going to get to $100 million domestically, but it will likely get knocked out of the top five before then. Meanwhile, the film is earning $26 million in 37 markets internationally for a total of $62 million. Both of those figures are based on the three-day weekend, as MLK isn’t an international holiday. The film is having an outstanding opening in France with a first place, $3.90 million debut on 566 screens. However, it had to settle for second place in Germany with $1.92 million on 416 screens.
Jumanji: The Next Level is going to earn fourth place with estimates of $9.57 million over the three-day weekend and $12.58 million including Monday. This will push its running tally to $273.49 million after six weeks of release. It very likely won’t get to $300 million domestically, but it will come very close. Meanwhile, it is adding $17 million on 8,800 screens in 65 markets to its international total, which will sit at $438 million by the end of Sunday. This includes a $4.3 million debut in Brazil, the film’s last international market. This is a slight improvement over the previous film’s debut there.
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is right behind with a weekend haul of $8.4 million / $10.6 million and a running tally of $492.0 million after a month of release. It is also adding $10.9 million in 53 international markets for totals of $534.6 million internationally and $1.027 billion worldwide.
Weathering with You is going to miss the top ten with an opening weekend of $1.73 million / $2.01 million giving it a five-day run of $5.05 million. This is a fantastic start and the film is already GKIDS’ biggest hit to date, topping Mary and the Witch’s Flower. Furthermore, its reviews could help it find a more mainstream audience and help Anime grow beyond its niche fan base.
- Weekend Box Office Chart
- Friday Estimates
- Biggest Single Day in January
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- Friday Box Office Chart
- Thursday Box Office Chart
- Wednesday Box Office Chart
- Thursday Night Previews
- Weekend Predictions
- Theater Counts
- MLK Long Weekend Opening Record
- 2020 Domestic Box Office Chart
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Bad Boys For Life, Dolittle, Jumanji: The Next Level, 1917, Weathering with You (天気の子)