Weekend Predictions: Can 1917 Race to First Place?
January 9, 2020
It is a busy weekend with two films opening wide and two films expanding wide. These two groups have vastly different critical receptions and will likely have vastly different box office results. 1917 could be the big winner on Oscar night and that buzz is certainly helping its box office chances. Just Mercy isn’t doing as well with critics or in limited release, so it likely won’t be a major factor during its wide expansion. Like a Boss is earning the worst reviews of the weekend and that’s not helping its box office chances. Finally there’s Underwater, which was made by Fox before the merger, and I don’t think Disney cares if it lives or dies at the box office. This weekend last year was led by The Upside with just over $20 million. There’s a slim chance 1917 will double that figure over the weekend and even if that turns out to be too optimistic, 2020 shouldn’t have too much trouble topping 2019 in the year-over-year comparison.
1917 had a fantastic opening weekend and actually managed to grow during its sophomore stint. Clearly its word-of-mouth is outstanding. It’s even better than expected and given its reviews and its Awards Season success, it was expected to have very positive word-of-mouth. That said, I don’t want to get carried away with my box office prediction. Predictions range from close to $30 million to almost $50 million. I would love to see the film reach that height, as it would guarantee a super fast start to the year, but I think $35 million it a more reasonable goal for the film.
This means Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker will relinquish first place for the first time in its run. That said, it should still be potent with $16 million over the weekend for a running tally of nearly $480 million after four weeks of release. The film will get to $500 million, which is more than enough to guarantee a sizable profit. That said, I’m glad Disney is giving the franchise a rest and I hope they do more stories that have nearly no connection to the main films.
Jumanji: The Next Level should be close behind with about $14 million. This will help the film cross $250 million over the weekend, while it has a slim shot at $300 million domestically. It will need really long trailing legs to get there.
Like a Boss is a typical January release. It looks good on paper with a lot of comedic talent; however, something clearly went wrong, as it is earning the worst reviews of the weekend. Its star power should prevent it from bombing; in fact, it could earn second place, with a little luck. Opening with $18 million isn’t out of the question. Unfortunately, it could also earn less than half of that and I wouldn’t be too surprised either. I’m going with fourth place and $13 million,
Little Women should round out the top five with $9 million, pushing its running tally to $75 million. It will get to $100 million domestically, especially if it can turn its reviews into Awards Season wins.
Just Mercy is busted Oscar-bait. It’s good, but it’s is just not good enough to win awards. Because of this, it is going to be overshadowed by 1917, so much so that it will likely miss the top five with just under $9 million. This is close enough to Little Women’s prediction that if it does take fifth place, I won’t be surprised.
Finally we have Underwater. This film isn’t bad, especially compared to most January releases, but it is thoroughly average. Furthermore, the Fox / Disney merger means it isn’t getting the studio support it needs to survive. There’s a chance the film will miss the Mendoza Line with just $5 million. I’m not that pessimistic, but I think it will come close with just over $6 million.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Underwater, Just Mercy, Jumanji: The Next Level, Like a Boss, 1917, Little Women, Star Wars