Weekend Predictions: Will the Year End on a High Note, or will Rise have a Troubling Fall?
December 27, 2019
The weekend after Christmas tends to be even bigger at the box office than the weekend before Christmas, as people are no longer rushing around making sure they have their last minute gifts and food for Christmas dinner. That said, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker will likely still fall, as monster blockbusters rarely have extremely long legs. The other sophomore films opened so poorly that I can image theater owners will be pushing them to the smallest screens, perhaps with limited showings. As for the new releases, none of Little Women, Uncut Gems, or Spies in Disguise got off to a great start on Christmas Day, but none of them bombed either. This weekend last year, Aquaman led the way with over $52 million, while the top three earned almost exactly $100 million. This year, The Rise of Skywalker could earn $100 million all by itself. The year will end on a very positive note.
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker matched expectations nearly perfectly last weekend with $177.38 million. However, it is widely expected to fall dramatically this weekend, due in part to the Fanboy Effect, but also because its weaker than anticipated reviews and its mere B plus rating from CinemaScore. The lack of direct competition and the holidays should help it hit $100 million on the very high end, but a drop-off of just over 50% to $87 million is more likely. That will still keep the film on pace to reach $400 million before the end of the year.
Jumanji: The Next Level will hold on better, in fact, it it could see significant growth this week compared to last weekend. It could drop a little to $25 million, while it could grow enough to earn more than $30 million. I’m going with $28 million over the weekend.
Little Women opened in third place on Christmas Day with $6.43 million. Is this good? I don’t know. While there are plenty of films that have opened on Christmas Day, Christmas can fall on any day of the week and what day it lands on makes a huge difference. The last time Christmas landed on a Wednesday was 2013 and the year before that was 2002. There have only been nine other films to open wide on Christmas Day that landed on a Wednesday this millennium and that’s not a large enough data set to base any conclusions on. On the positive side, the film’s reviews are amazing and the film is earning some Awards Season success, so it should have very strong legs. Look for over $20 million over the weekend for a five-day opening of $35 million.
Frozen II was knocked out of the top five on Christmas day, but will bounce back over the weekend, in part because of its target audience, but also because it is a holdover that’s been in theaters for a month. For example, Coco rose 39% this weekend back in 2017. If Frozen II has the same hold, then it would pull in $18 million over the weekend. I don’t think it will quite get there, because it has direct competition from Spies in Disguise, but it will come close with $17 million.
Spies in Disguise managed fifth place on Christmas Day with $4.76 million and it should remain there over the weekend thanks in part to its family friendly target audience. (Strangely, the film above it and the one below it will have a lot more movement over the weekend.) It should also do well thanks to its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore. It won’t be a monster hit, but it should cross $20 million over the weekend and I’m going with a $16 million three-day weekend.
Uncut Gems managed fourth place on Christmas Day with $5.91 million, but it won’t stay in fourth place for long. While its reviews are stellar and it has even earned some Awards Season success, the film only managed a C plus from CinemaScore. In this case, I think audiences weren’t expecting a movie like this, which is why they were displeased. This will likely hurt its chances leaving it just out of the top five with $13 million over the three-day weekend.
- Christmas Releses
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- Theater Counts
- Christmas Day Box Office Chart
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Frozen II, Spies in Disguise, Uncut Gems, Jumanji: The Next Level, Little Women