Weekend Estimates: Frozen II Sets Animation Records with $127 million
November 24, 2019
It didn’t look like Frozen II would match our $125 million prediction based on Friday’s estimate, but if weekend estimates hold, it will did so with $127.0 million. This is not only the highest opening weekend for an Animated film in November, but anytime outside of summer. This greater-than-anticipated internal multiplier stronger suggests better legs overall. It is a family film opening just before Thanksgiving, so it was expected to have long legs regardless, but its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore were merely good and not great. Add in the sequel effect and the film leg’s wouldn’t be nearly as stunning as the first Frozen’s legs were. However, after this result, I’m a lot more confident the film will still be at least a truly wide release come January, if not a saturation level release, as its predecessor was.
Internationally, Frozen II is also setting records with the largest international opening for an animated film at $223.2 million in 32 markets. Its worldwide estimated opening weekend of $350.2 million is also a record for an animated film. Highlights include China ($53.0 million); South Korea ($31.5 million); Japan ($18.2 million) and the U.K. ($17.8 million). On the downside, it’s hard to compare these results to Frozen’s debuts. For example, China’s market for animated films practically didn’t exist back in 2013. I say on the downside, but that’s just for people like me, box office analysts. We will need to see a few more weeks before we can be confident in the film’s box office potential. The numbers are looking great so far. The first film opened with $9.73 million in Japan and $7.69 million in the U.K., so this is amazing growth and even with shorter legs, it should be a lot more potent in the end. Again, we will have a better idea once December starts and the competition heats up.
Ford v Ferrari will earn second place, with $16.0 million giving it a two-week haul of $58.0 million. Its international numbers are very similar at $14.7 million in 43 markets over the weekend for totals of $45.8 million internationally and $103.8 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this weekend and won’t next weekend.
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood is only earning third place with an estimated debut of $13.5 million. This is disappointing when you compare it to the film’s reviews, but hopefully it will earn Awards Season recognition and that will give it very long legs.
21 Bridges is next with $9.3 million during its opening weekend. Mixed reviews and a B plus from CinemaScore won’t help its legs, so it will need help on the home market to break even any time soon.
Midway and Playing with Fire are too close to call with $4.7 million and $4.62 million respectively. Since they are within a rounding error of each other, we could easily see them flip places when the final numbers come in tomorrow.
Dark Waters is leading the way for limited releases with $110,000 in four theaters for an average of $27,500. The only other member of the $10,000 club right now is Citizen K with $10,250 in its lone theater.
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Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Frozen II, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Midway, Ford v. Ferrari, 21 Bridges, Dark Waters, Playing with Fire, Citizen K