Weekend Predictions: Summer Slows to a Crawl

August 22, 2019

Angel Has Fallen

There are three wide releases this week, but only one of them, Angel Has Fallen, is widely expected to do anything at the box office. Overcomer is a faith-based film and those are a risk at the box office, but the people behind this one do have a good track record. Finally there’s Ready or Not, the widest ever release for Fox Searchlight and its reviews are easily the best of the week, but the buzz suggests that won’t be enough to thrive. This weekend last year, Crazy Rich Asians dipped just 6% earning just over $24 million. No film is going to match that figure this week. There’s a chance all three wide releases won’t match that figure this week, combined.

Angel Has Fallen is the third film in the Has Fallen franchise. There was a large drop-off at the domestic box office from the first film to the second and I fear there will be another significant drop-off this time as well, even though the reviews have improved over London’s reviews. If Angel suffers a similar percentage decline as well, it will still earn first place with about $15 million and I think that’s the most likely outcome.

The average prediction for Overcomer is not looking good and I can understand the pessimism. After all, faith-based films are a risk and for every midlevel hit, there are many, many flops. Additionally, this film only has one review and it is negative. That said, the people behind this movie, the Kendrick Brothers, have an excellent track record at the box office and their last film, War Room, was a monster hit compared to the average faith-based film. I don’t think this film will do quite as well, but it should still earn second place with just under $11 million over the weekend and it could have surprisingly long legs.

Good Boys will fall to third place with just under $10 million. On the positive side, there is no direct competition. On the negative side, its reviews weren’t amazing and it only managed a B plus from CinemaScore, which is also not a good omen. That said, if it matches expectations this weekend, then it will have about $40 million after ten days of release on an estimated $20 million production budget.

The Lion King reached $500 million on Wednesday, so its box office numbers over the weekend are little more than an afterthought. The film should earn fourth place with $8 million, which is impressive for a film that’s been in theaters for more than a month.

Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw should round out the top five with just over $7 million during the weekend. The film is closing in on $150 million domestically, but fortunately, it is a monster hit internationally.

This leaves Ready or Not on the outside looking in. The film did open better than expected on Wednesday, earning $1.9 million, including $730,000 in Tuesday previews. Additionally, it has the best reviews of any of the new releases and it earned a B plus from CinemaScore, which is great for this type of film. On the other hand, it is a Black Comedy and those are a tough sell to audiences. On the high end, the word-of-mouth helps the film earn $11 million during its five-day debut, which would be great for the $6 million film. On the low end, it collapses on Thursday and struggles to avoid the Mendoza Line over the three-day weekend. I think it will come very close to $10 million during its debut, which is enough to be a financial success and earn a profit during its home market run.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Lion King, Good Boys, Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw, Angel Has Fallen, Overcomer, Ready or Not, Has Fallen, Alex Kendrick, Stephen Kendrick