Weekend Estimates: Lion King is Deadly to the Competition, and the Record Book
July 21, 2019
The Lion King is setting records this weekend with a projected opening of $185.0 million, destroying the previous July weekend record of $169.19 million, set by Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II. This is also the biggest opening for an animated film and biggest opening of any of Disney’s “live-action” remakes. Additionally, not only is the film getting off to a faster than expected start, it should have good legs. Granted, its reviews are mixed, but it is a family film and it did earn an A from CinemaScore, so that should help its longevity. Additionally, the next family film is Dora and the Lost City of Gold, which has only about a 50/50 chance of reaching $100 million in total. As for the film’s international numbers, it added $269.4 million in 52 markets to its early international total, which now sits at $346.0 million, while its worldwide total is already $531.0 million. The film didn’t set many records internationally, but it is earning the second-biggest opening weekend in Brazil with $17.9 million and in Russia at $16.7 million. This would have looked a lot more impressive had Endgame hadn’t set so many records earlier this year, but more on that in a bit.
Spider-Man: Far From Home is also topping expectations, albeit by a tiny margin with an estimated $21.0 million. This will push its domestic total to $319.7 million, giving it an easy path to $350 million domestically. Internationally, the film is earning $37.2 million on 18,800 screens in 67 markets for totals of $651.1 million internationally and $970.8 million worldwide. It will reach the $1 billion mark early next weekend, perhaps a day sooner.
Toy Story 4 could also be on pace for $1 billion worldwide after earning an estimated $14.6 million domestically and $25.8 million internationally. Its domestic running tally will be $375.5 million, if estimates hold, meaning it will get to $400 million domestically with ease. Additionally, it has an estimated international total of $483.9 million and $859.4 million worldwide, with an opening in Germany still ahead.
If estimates hold, then Crawl won’t have the worst hold in the top five, as it is down just 50% to $6.0 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $23.83 million. This is an amazing hold for a horror film and it shows that the film’s reviews and its B from CinemaScore are helping its word-of-mouth.
Yesterday will round out the top five with an estimated $5.1 million over the weekend for a total of $57.6 million after four weeks of release. This is an excellent result for a movie that cost just $26 million to make.
The only limited release we have early numbers for, and that is doing well, is David Crosby: Remember My Name, which is earning an estimated average of $10,263 in four theaters.
Finally, Disney has announced that Avengers: Endgame has overtaken Avatar on the all-time worldwide chart $2.7902 billion to $2.7897 billion. That is as close as I’ve seen a record and Endgame will only add a few more million to its worldwide total, so the gap will end at about 0.1% in the end.
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Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Avengers: Endgame, Toy Story 4, Spider-Man: Far From Home, The Lion King, Yesterday, Crawl, David Crosby: Remember My Name