Weekend Predictions: Can Spider-Man Snap the Streak?

July 3, 2019

Spider-Man: Far From Home

It has been a long time since we’ve had a pleasant surprise at the box office. In fact, the last film to really beat expectations and earn first place was Aladdin, which came out in May. However, it appears that streak is over, as Spider-Man: Far From Home broke the record for biggest Tuesday with $39.26 million. Additionally, Midsommar earned $1.1 million during its previews, which means July should get off to a faster than expected start. Additionally, there should be some strong holds in the top five as well, with Toy Story 4, Annabelle Comes Home, and Yesterday all looking to earn more than $10 million over the three-day weekend. This weekend last year, Ant-Man and the Wasp opened with $75.81 million. Spider-Man: Far From Home could top that after its record-breaking start and the overall box office does look a little healthier as a result.

Spider-Man: Far From Home is the latest installment in the M.C.U. and like just about every other installment in this megafranchise, this film is earning stellar reviews and is expected to dominate the box office. In fact, it got off to a record-breaking start earning the biggest Tuesday with $39.26 million during its opening day. Early reports have it holding well on Wednesday with north of $25 million, meaning it is on pace for $150 million during its six-day debut. Unfortunately for box office analysts, there is a lot of uncertainty here, as Tuesday openings are very rare, so there are not a lot of films to use as comparisons. Additionally, the July 4th has landed on a Thursday only twice in the past 20 plus years, so we are flying blind with predictions. The film could earn $140 million to $160 million during its six-day debut and I wouldn’t really be shocked either way.

Toy Story 4 will get knocked to second place, likely with just over $30 million putting it very close to $300 million after just three weeks of release. The film would have to beat expectations by a significant degree to put $400 million in play, but even if it doesn’t come close to that mark, the movie will still break even early in its home market run.

Yesterday should have one of the better holds on this week’s list, thanks mostly to its more mature target audience. In fact, it should earn more than $10 million this weekend, which isn’t that far behind the $12 million it was predicted to earn during its opening weekend.

Annabelle Comes Home will fall a lot faster, because it is a horror more and it has to deal with direct competition. That said, it should be in a close race for fourth place, also with just over $10 million.

Midsommar is writer / director Ari Aster’s follow-up to Hereditary, an art house horror movie that earned a lot of mainstream success. This film’s reviews are a bit weaker, but still impressive at 80% positive. I think this film will be a bit more appealing to mainstream audiences and has a chance at third place over the three-day weekend with close to $13 million. On the other hand, there are some who think it will miss the top five with under $6 million. Splitting the difference gets us $10 million over the three-day weekend, which is more than what it cost to make, while it will have just over $15 million during its five-day debut.

If Midsommar does struggle, then Aladdin will be there to grab fifth place with just over $6 million.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Toy Story 4, Spider-Man: Far From Home, Aladdin, Midsommar, Yesterday, Annabelle Comes Home, Marvel Cinematic Universe, Ari Aster