Weekend Predictions: Can Aladdin Grant the Box Office its Wish?

May 23, 2019

Aladdin

It’s Memorial Day long weekend, which is historically one of the biggest weekends of the year. However, this year there are not a lot of prime new releases to talk about. Aladdin is the only new release expected to become even a midlevel hit, while both Booksmart and Brightburn are expected to struggle in their counter-programming roles. The three new releases will be competing for spots in the top five with three holdovers, John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum, Avengers: Endgame, and Pokémon: Detective Pikachu. That’s six films competing for five slots, so one of them will miss out. This weekend last year, Solo: A Star Wars Story led the way with $84.42 million over the three-day weekend. There are many who think Aladdin won’t make that much over four days. I’m a little more bullish than most, but I don’t think 2019 will get back in the winning column this weekend. Aladdin’s numbers haven’t picked up as they should have.

Aladdin is the second live-action remake of a classic Disney animated film to come out this year. It isn’t the last one that will come out this year. The previous film, Dumbo, missed expectations at the box office, but this one should bounce back. It likely won’t reach the high peaks I thought it would, but it still has the potential to become a monster hit. The film’s reviews are barely in the overall positive level, which is a step up from Dumbo’s reviews, but are well below the reviews the original Aladdin earned. On the high end, the film will come very close to last year’s Solo: A Star Wars Story and could even cross $100 million over four days. On the low end, it will struggle to top $70 million from Friday through Sunday. I think the high end is slightly more likely and I’m going with $89 million over four days.

John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum topped expectations last weekend and thanks to the holidays, it has a real chance of holding on well this weekend. It does have somewhat direct competition in Brightburn, but its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore should give it the edge. It could earn just over $30 million over the four-day weekend, but I think $27 million is more likely. This would still be a fantastic result. In fact, had the film made that much during its opening weekend, it likely would have broken even sometime during its initial push onto the home market.

Avengers: Endgame will be next with about $21 million over the weekend, pushing its running tally to just over $800 million after a month of release.

Pokémon: Detective Pikachu should be right behind with $19 million. Of the three holdovers in the top five, this one will be hit the hardest by Aladdin; however, it should remain on pace to top $150 million domestically, assuming it gets a little push over the top.

There is some debate regarding Booksmart and Brightburn. There doesn’t seem to be a consensus on which film will earn fifth place. Booksmart is earning the best reviews of the weekend and arguably the best reviews of the year. However, it’s being released by Annapurna / MGM under the United Artists label. That’s not a combination that exactly inspires confidence, as the pair of distributors don’t exactly have a track record of consistent hits at the box office. In fact, even the low end predictions have Booksmart earning enough during its opening weekend to be in the top five in Annapurna’s all-time domestic chart. It could come close to fourth place with $13 million. I’m going with $11 million, but given its reviews, it could have long legs.

Brightburn is a horror film / deconstruction of the Superman Mythos. The reviews are good, but not great, and sadly it could fall through the cracks at the box office as a result. Expectations range from $8 million on the low end to $12 million on the high end. I’m going with just under $10 million, but I want to be wrong about this one.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Avengers: Endgame, Dumbo, Aladdin, John Wick: Chapter 3 — Parabellum, Pokémon: Detective Pikachu, Booksmart, BrightBurn, Superman