Weekend Estimates: Endgame Continues to Fall, while Pikachu has Solid Start
May 12, 2019
If projections hold, then Avengers: Endgame will fall almost as much this weekend as it did during its second weekend, with a 57% decline taking it to $63.1 million time around, and a three-week total of $723.5 million. It is very unusual for a film to not rebound significantly during in third weekend of release. One sign of how quickly the film is dropping after its enormous opening is that it will have “only” the fourth-biggest third weekend, slipping behind Black Panther at this point in its run.
Granted, Endgame had much stiffer competition this weekend than last, but it is still puzzling. It also means The Force Awakens is very likely going to remain on top of the all-time domestic box office chart for at least a little while longer. Internationally, Endgame will earn $102.3 million this weekend, for a running tally of $1.76 billion internationally and $2.49 billion worldwide. This is a much better hold than it managed domestically and it means the film will be able to overtake Avatar on the all-time worldwide chart relatively soon.
Pokémon: Detective Pikachu is close behind with an estimated opening weekend of $58.00 million. The reviews are good at 63% positive, while its CinemaScore was better at an A minus, so it should have decent legs. Internationally, Warner Bros. reports estimates of $103 million in 62 markets, for totals of $112.4 million internationally and $170.4 million worldwide. The film has already earned more worldwide after just one week of full release than its $150 million production budget. Assuming it has legs that match its reviews / audience reaction, then it will break even sooner rather than later. In fact, it could break even just on increased merchandise sales.
The Hustle topped our high end prediction with $13.54 million during its opening weekend. This isn’t a great opening, but it is better than its reviews and its B minus from CinemaScore would indicate. Furthermore, this is an even better result considering how many release dates it bounced around and likely how low MGM’s expectations were.
The Intruder is managing to hold on much better than expected, down just 37% to $6.6 million for a two-week total of just under $21.0 million. It is unusual for a thriller to drop so little during its sophomore stint.
Long Shot is right behind with an identical decline of 37%, earning $6.13 million over the weekend for a running tally of $19.74 milliohn.
It looks like Poms will miss the Mendoza Line as its projected opening weekend is just $5.11 million in 2,750 theaters. Its reviews clearly scared away a lot of its potential audience members, while its B plus from CinemaScore is, at best, mediocre.
Tolkien is doing even worse with an opening weekend of $2.15 million in 1,495 theaters. The reviews are mixed (below 50% positive and way far from award-worthy), while it is too small of a release to get a CinemaScore.
The best limited release we have numbers for so far is The Biggest Little Farm. The film is earning just over $100,000 according to the estimates for an average of $20,202 in five theaters.
- Weekend estimates
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- Marvel Cinematic Universe
- Biggest third weekends
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Avengers: Endgame, Long Shot, The Hustle, Pokémon: Detective Pikachu, The Intruder, Poms, The Biggest Little Farm, Tolkien, Marvel Cinematic Universe