Weekend Predictions: Can Pikachu Solve Endgame at the Box Office?
May 9, 2019
There are four wide releases opening this weekend, but Pokémon: Detective Pikachu is the only one expected to have any impact at the box office. Even then, it would be a shock if it really challenged Avengers: Endgame for top spot. It will take a bit of luck for The Hustle and Poms to earn more than $10 million at the box office. Meanwhile, I would be a little surprised if Tolkien opened in the top five. Detective Pikachu and Endgame will be leading the way and trying to keep 2019’s winning streak going. In order to do that, they will need to top last year’s group of box office hits, which include Infinity War and ... Life of the Party. Seems doable. In fact, 2019 should have another stellar result in the year-over-year competition.
Avengers: Endgame is trying to catch The Force Awakens on the all-time domestic box office chart and this week will go a long way in determining if that is possible. The film would need to pull in close to $90 million this weekend for me to be confident about its chances, but I fear that’s asking too much. That said, anything more than $80 million would keep the possibility open. I think just over $80 million is the most likely result, but it could go either way.
Pokémon: Detective Pikachu was a bit of a head-scratcher when it was first announced. Why adapt a lesser known spin-off as the first big-budget live action movie for such a well-known franchise? Then the trailers came out and most people were immediately on board. Unfortunately, the reviews didn’t live up to the trailers. Its reviews are still good with a Tomatometer of 69%, but I was expecting much more. As for its box office numbers, its tracking has it at just over $50 million; however, it has the potential to be a lot better, because it’s hard to track if the film will appeal outside of its target audience. I think it will. I think people who were not fans of Pokémon before the Pokémon Go video game was released will be interested in the seeing the film. I’m one of them. I’m a little more bullish than most, so keep that in mind, but I’m going with $65 million.
I not surprised that The Hustle’s reviews are bad. After all, it struggled to find a release date, so clearly the studio knew something was wrong. However, I am more than a little surprised that the reviews are this bad. Its Tomatometer Score actually dipped below 10% positive earlier today, but currently sits just a hair above that mark now. Its box office potential is about the same. I’m going with $11 million over the weekend, but anything from $8 million to $13 million wouldn’t be a surprise.
Poms is a movie aimed at more mature women and these films tend to really struggle during their opening weekends, but also tend to have much longer than average legs. For example, Book Club only managed $13.58 million during its opening weekend, but it finished with nearly $70 million domestically. Unfortunately for Poms, it doesn’t have as loud pre-release buzz and its reviews are much weaker than Book Club’s reviews were. There is a very slim chance Poms could open as fast, but I think it will debut with just under $10 million. It should still have solid legs and finish with $40 million.
Fifth place should a tight race between The Intruder and Long Shot. The Intruder had a better opening weekend; however, Long Shot has much better reviews. It is also a romantic comedy compared to a thriller and that genre historically has better legs.
That brings us to Tolkien. This feels like a prestige film, one that would be released in the fall looking for Awards Season glory. It wouldn’t have succeeded there, because its reviews are below 50% positive and way below award-worthy. Finally, the film is only opening in just under 1,500 theaters, so its chances of getting into the top five are really slim. In fact, I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if it opened below the Mendoza Line. I’m not that pessimistic, but I’m going with just over $5 million.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Avengers: Endgame, Long Shot, The Hustle, Pokémon: Detective Pikachu, The Intruder, Poms, Tolkien