Weekend Estimates: Endgame and Force Awakens in Real Fight
May 5, 2019
The weekend isn’t going as well as I had hoped. Avengers: Endgame managed $145.80 million during its second weekend of release, which would leave it just behind The Force Awakens for biggest second weekend of all time. However, this is from Disney and they underestimated last week’s opening by such a large margin that I’m not sure The Force Awakens’ record is safe. On the other hand, there’s no ambiguity about Endgame setting the record for fastest to $600 topping The Force Awakens’s previous record by two full days. The film’s running tally sits at $619.70 million after just ten days of release and I don’t think it is hyperbolic to say it will top $900 million given its start so far. In fact, it could remove The Force Awakens from the top spot on the all-time Domestic title by the time its done, if it turns out Disney was being too conservative with its estimates again this week.
The Intruder is the only new release topping expectations earning an estimated $11.0 million during its opening weekend, which is more than double what the film cost to make. On the other hand, I don’t expect long legs here for a number of reasons. Firstly, the genre tends to be front-loaded. Secondly, the reviews are among the worst of the weekend, while it doesn’t have a CinemaScore. Finally, there are much bigger releases coming out over the next few weeks and they will be grabbing a lot of screens.
According to estimates, Long Shot is going to open with just $10.03 million, this despite earning the best reviews of the weekend. Moviegoers are not as in love with this romantic comedy as critics are, as it only managed a B from CinemaScore, so its chances of long legs are slim. The film didn’t cost too much to make with estimates in the $40 million range; however, it needed to open faster than this to break even any time soon.
UglyDolls only managed $8.51 million during its opening weekend. It was playing at a saturation-level theater count (more than 3,000 theaters), so its theater average is very low. Combine this with its awful reviews and a mere B plus from CinemaScore and it is unlikely to have long legs. Furthermore, digital animation tends to be expensive, even third-tier digital animation, so I doubt this film will break even any time soon.
Estimates have Captain Marvel earning fifth place with $4.28 million for a total of $420.77 million after two months of release.
The best limited release we have numbers for so far is Non-Fiction, with an estimated opening weekend average of $14,528 in two theaters. Shadow also did well with an average of $7,525 in four theaters.
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Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Captain Marvel, Avengers: Endgame, UglyDolls, Jing Zhou, Long Shot, The Intruder, Doubles vies