Friday Estimates: Curses! Box Office is Foiled Again
April 20, 2019
The Curse of La Llorona got off to a fantastic start on Friday with $11.8 million during its opening day. This is a stronger opening day than Pet Sematary managed, but not as strong as its preview numbers were in comparison to Pet Sematary, so it likely won’t have the same legs. This isn’t surprising, as its reviews are much worse and it is part of a long-running franchise. Both of those factors tend to shorten legs. On the positive side, it earned a B minus from CinemaScore, which is actually really good for a horror film. The Curse of La Llorona would have to have tragically short legs to not earn first place after a start like this. Look for an opening weekend of $26 million.
Even though Shazam will be pushed into second place, but it will still match our prediction for the weekend. It earned $6.16 million on Friday to put it on pace for a weekend of between $16 million to $17 million.
Breakthrough didn’t breakout as much as I thought it would after its better-than-expected opening day. It earned $3.81 million on Friday, while I was hoping for north of $4 million. Its reviews and its A CinemaScore suggest longer legs and Wednesday debuts tend to have better internal multipliers, so it could hit $13 million over the weekend. $11 million is more likely and this is still a solid debut for a faith-based film.
Captain Marvel earned fourth place on Friday with $3.15 million. It might not last in fourth place for long, as Little should overtake it on the daily chart, as it is a family film. However, even fifth place with just over $9 million continues a great run.
Meanwhile, Little earned fifth place on Friday with $2.89 million, putting it on pace for $9 million over the weekend. This is only 46% lower than its opening Friday, although it was Good Friday yesterday, so that had an effect.
Finally we get to Penguins, which earned $901,000. It will take excellent legs just to avoid the Mendoza Line. Granted, it has the best reviews of the new releases this weekend and it did earn an A from CinemaScore, but getting past $3 million might be asking too much.
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Filed under: Friday Estimates, Shazam!, Captain Marvel, The Curse of La Llorona, Pet Sematary, Penguins, Little, Breakthrough, The Conjuring