Friday Estimates: Captain Marvel Hits $200 million Domestically and $600 million Worldwide
March 16, 2019
Captain Marvel held on a little better than expected to earn $19.05 million on Friday, which pushes it past the $200 million mark in just 8 days. This is 69% lower than its opening Friday, but is still a fantastic start to its sophomore weekend. In fact, it should top our prediction with $68 million over the full weekend for a two week total of nearly $265 million. Disney hasn’t released Friday’s international numbers, but it is widely expected to top $400 million internationally and $600 million worldwide. The film has already surpassed five previous installments in the MCU on the worldwide chart and did so in just eight days. By the end of the weekend, it could be in the top ten for the franchise.
Fortunately, Captain Marvel wasn’t the only film to top expectations, as Five Feet Apart earned $5.37 million on Friday, putting it on pace for closer to $14 million over the full weekend. This is nearly double the $7 million it cost to make, so Lionsgate’s share of the opening weekend box office will be almost exactly as much as they spent making the movie. They still have to pay for the advertising, but that shouldn’t be a huge problem. The film’s reviews are only mixed, but it earned an A from CinemaScore, so clearly its target audience liked the film much more than critics did. This should help its legs and its home market numbers.
Wonder Park was right behind with $5.35 million on Friday. It will easily top our $12 million prediction by the end of business on Saturday and is on pace for between $17 million and $18 million over the full weekend. However, I’m not sure about its future legs. Its reviews are the worst of the three wide releases and it only managed a B plus from CinemaScore, which is very weak for a family film. That said, the film is basically a $100 million pilot for the TV show, so as long as enough kids liked it for the show to be a hit, then Paramount will be happy with this result.
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World nearly matched our expectation with $2.55 million on Friday, prompting Universal to project $9.39 million over the weekend.
Likewise, Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral will top our $7 million prediction by a small amount over the weekend after earning $2.17 million on Friday.
No Manches Frida 2 was another positive surprise, earning $1.3 million on Friday. This is a great start for a film playing in 472 theaters, assuming it has average legs. However, it is expected to have much better than average legs and earn just over $4 million over the weekend. Granted, the early reviews are not good, but the first No Manches Frida had a very high internal multiplier during its opening weekend. I don’t think this film will have such long legs, but it will top its predecessor during its opening weekend and could expand next weekend, so I think Lionsgate will be more than happy with this result.
On the other hand, Captive State is struggling even more than expected with just $1.27 million on Friday. Its reviews are good, but not good enough to turn things around and it will finish with just over $3 million during its opening weekend. This film is just the latest wide release to miss the Mendoza Line this year.
- Wonder Park Comparisons
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- Five Feet Apart Comparisons
- Captive State Comparisons
Filed under: Friday Estimates, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Captain Marvel, Wonder Park, Captive State, Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral, Five Feet Apart, No Manches Frida 2, Marvel Cinematic Universe