Weekend Estimates: Dragons Stay Afloat, Medea Ends on a High Note
March 3, 2019
According to estimates, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World really bounced back on Saturday and its Sunday number will help it earn first place over the weekend with $30.05 million. This is lower than predictions and a sophomore decline of 48% is a little steep for a family film. That said, the film is nearly at $100 million domestically after just 10 days and its worldwide total is at $375 million, again according to estimates. The film opened in first place in China with $33.38 million in approximately 10,000 locations. The film’s only remaining major market is Japan, but it doesn’t open there until August. In the meantime, the film should have little trouble getting to $500 million worldwide before then.
Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral is beating expectations with an estimated $27.05 million opening weekend. If this is the last film in the Madea franchise, then the franchise is going out on a high note, at least at the box office. The film’s reviews are just 24% positive, but that’s not a terrible result compared to the franchise’s average.
Alita: Battle Angel’s weekend estimate is matching our prediction perfectly at $7.0 million. Unfortunately for the film, Captain Marvel opens on Friday and even if this film doesn’t lose a ton of theaters, its going to lose most if not all of its prime screens and this will really hurt its chances going forward.
The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part is earning $6.62 million over the weekend according to estimates and remains on pace for $100 million domestically, although it will be knocked out of the top five before then. The film is having a similar run internationally with $6.1 million for a running tally of $61.1 million. The film’s only impressive major market is the U.K., where it has earned $20.3 million, including $1.7 million this weekend. The film opens in Australia and China by the end of the month, but it would have to be unusually strong hits in those two markets to turn things around.
There is a virtual three-way tie for fifth place according to estimates between Green Book ($4.71 million); Fighting With My Family ($4.69 million); and Isn’t It Romantic ($4.65 million). I would be a little surprised if those three films remained in that order once the final weekend numbers are in.
Greta is opening on the low end of expectations, and expectations were low to being with. It looks like it will miss the Mendoza Line with an estimated $4.59 million in 2,411 theaters. Its reviews are not good, but they are certainly better than its box office numbers.
There was a lot of activity on the limited release front, with a number of films opening in the $10,000 club according to estimates. This includes Apollo 11, which came relatively close to the top ten with $1.65 million in 120 theaters for an average of $13,750. Climax has the best theater average at $24,331 in five theaters. Three others are crossing the $10,000 mark this weekend: Transit at $17,684 in two theaters, Giant Little Ones at $13,500 in one, and Furie at $10,386 in 14.
- Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral Comparisons
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- Greta Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Captain Marvel, The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part, Alita: Battle Angel, Isn’t it Romantic, Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral, Fighting With My Family, Climax, Transit, Greta, Giant Little Ones, Apollo 11, Hai Phuong, Madea