Weekend Predictions: Can Dragons make the Box Office Soar Again?
February 21, 2019
There’s only one true wide release this weekend, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, but it should become the fastest opening film of the year so far. Additionally, Fighting With My Family is expanding wide and after its stellar start last weekend, it should easily earn a spot in the top five. It likely won’t be able to top Alita: Battle Angel or The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part, but it should be in a battle for fourth place with Isn’t It Romantic. On the positive side, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World should earn more than the three new wide releases from this weekend last year. On the negative side, Black Panther remained in top spot with closer to $120 million. 2019 is going to get destroyed in the year-over-year comparison, again, but at least it won’t be as bad as last week was.
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World is the third film in the How to Train Your Dragon franchise. The first film opened with $43.73 million, while the second film earned $49.45 million during its debut. This film is widely expected to be within that range, more or less. Its reviews are 93% positive, which is actually on the lower end of the franchise’s average. Fortunately, I think it will finish on the high end at the box office with close to $48 million over the weekend and just over $50 million including the $2.5 million it earned during paid previews on February 2nd.
Alita: Battle Angel beat expectations last weekend and could hold on relatively well this weekend, at least for a big budget Sci-fi action film. The film’s reviews are just below the overall positive level, but it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, so audiences liked it a lot more than the critics did. The film should add $14 million this weekend, but if it can top this prediction by just a couple of million of dollars, it will have a shot at $100 million domestically.
The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part will make it to $100 million, but not this weekend. Look for between $11 million and $12 million this weekend, lifting its running tally to between $85 and $86 million.
Fighting With My Family had the best theater average for any 2019 release so far. Additionally, its reviews are 93% positive and it earned an A from CinemaScore. (CinemaScore doesn’t normally track limited releases, but studios can pay for this service and release data, if it’s good.) The film’s tracking suggests it will earn between $8 million and $10 million. I’m going with just over $9 million, but I think it could be a surprise hit and challenge The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part for third place.
Isn’t It Romantic should round out the top five with just under $9 million. This will almost be enough to match its $38 million production budget after just two weeks of release. If it can find an audience internationally and / or on the home market, then it will break even sooner rather than later.
- How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World Comparisons
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- Fighting With My Family Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part, Alita: Battle Angel, Isn’t it Romantic, Fighting With My Family, How to Train Your Dragon