Weekend Wrap-Up: Alita Battles Disbelievers and Wins
February 20, 2019
The weekend wasn’t as bad as it could have been, at least not at the top. Alita: Battle Angel topped all but the most bullish expectations with $42.25 million from Thursday through Sunday. Isn’t It Romantic matched expectations nearly perfectly, while Happy Death Day 2U struggled, but should still break even, eventually. Overall, the box office rose 8.4% from last weekend, but plummet 57% from the same weekend last year. On the positive side, that was the weekend Black Panther debuted, so we knew a drop-off like this was to be expected. On the negative side, as of the end of business on Monday, 2019 was behind 2018’s pace by a margin of over $350 million or nearly 23%. 2019 will need to turn things around soon if it wants any chance of completing a comeback. Hell, it will need to turn things around soon if it wants any chance to avoid a worst-in-a-decade end result.
Alita: Battle Angel cost a fortune to make with a reported budget of $165 million, after tax incentives. Because of this, it was always going to have an uphill struggle to break even. In fact, saving face became the goal when it was given a February release date. Fortunately, it might have done well enough during its opening to do just that. The film opened with $42.25 million from Thursday through Monday, including $28.53 million over the three-day weekend. Additionally, while its reviews remain a rounding error away from the overall positive level, audiences liked the movie a lot more giving it an A minus through CinemaScore. We have already seen this positive word-of-mouth have an effect, as the film’s weekend estimates grew as the weekend wore on. If the film can hang on relatively well this coming weekend and if it can find an audience internationally, then it could do well enough to save face and maybe even encourage more Anime adaptations, with more reasonable budgets.
The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part earned $20.80 million over the three-day weekend and $27.75 million including Monday, which matches our prediction nearly perfectly. Good reviews, family-friendly nature, etc. all helped it take advantage of the holiday. However, its running tally is just $69.23 million after eleven days of release and many thought it would earn nearly that much during its three-day opening weekend. As I’ve stated before, franchise fatigue is the most likely reason for the film’s struggles.
Isn’t It Romantic landed in third place with $14.25 million over the three-day weekend for a six-day debut of $22.89 million. That’s a little better than predicted, but I’m not sure how long its legs will be. Its reviews are in the overall positive level, but it only managed a B from CinemaScore, which is weak for this type of film. That said, it only cost $38 million to make and it could top that figure by the end of the month.
What Men Want fell to fourth place with $10.68 million / $12.21 million over the weekend, which is within a rounding error of our prediction. The film’s running tally rose to $37.44 million and it should top $50 million within a week or so.
Happy Death Day 2U only managed fifth place with $9.50 million over the three-day weekend and $14.72 million from Wednesday through Monday. This is a huge drop-off from the first film, but there are some reasons to be optimistic. Firstly, the film’s reviews are within the overall positive level and it earned a B from CinemaScore, which is good for a horror film. Secondly, it only cost $9 million to make, so it doesn’t need to be a $50 million hit to break even. I don’t think they should extend the franchise any further, but that’s another discussion.
There were two other sophomore films that missed the top five. Cold Pursuit was down 46% to $5.98 million over the three-day weekend, while its total was $22.07 million, including Monday. Perhaps it’s time to retire this subgenre of film, as they haven’t had a lot of drawing power here for a while. The Prodigy was also down 46% earning $3.17 million over the three-day weekend for a total of $11.54 million including Monday.
- Alita: Battle Angel Comparisons
-4-News.jpg)
- Isn’t it Romantic Comparisons
- Happy Death Day 2U Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Wrap-up, The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part, Alita: Battle Angel, Isn’t it Romantic, What Men Want, Happy Death Day 2U, The Prodigy, Cold Pursuit, Lego, Happy Death Day