Weekend Predictions: Will there be a Lot of Love At the Box Office this week?
February 14, 2019
It’s a very odd weekend at the box office. Not only is it a long weekend with most people having Monday off, but Valentine’s Day is Thursday and two of the three wide releases opened on Wednesday. The biggest new release is Alita: Battle Angel, but the film reportedly cost as much as $200 million to make and there’s a chance it will open with less than $20 million over the three-day portion of the weekend. Isn’t It Romantic should get the biggest boost thanks to Valentine’s Day. Meanwhile, Happy Death Day 2U is hoping to top the original. As for this weekend last year, it was the weekend Black Panther debuted. 2019 is going to get destroyed at the year-over-year comparison, again. If it loses by less than 50%, I will be happy. That’s how bad things have gotten.
I think Alita: Battle Angel will earn first place at the box office, but that’s far from a sure thing. The massively budgeted movie has been dogged by negative buzz, not about the quality of the film, but its box office chances. Even with tax breaks, the film’s budget is rumored to be $165 million to $170 million, meaning it would need to make about $200 million here to have a chance of earning a substantial profit. Most analysts think it won’t get halfway there. The reviews are good, but not great, with the amazing special effects overshadowing the characters. That said, this isn’t a deal-breaking for Sci-fi action films. There were some who thought the film would make less than $20 million during the three-day weekend; however, the film pulled in $2.4 million during Tuesday’s / Wednesday’s previews. That’s not a monster hit figure, but it is better than expected and, on the very high end, it could get to $40 million from Thursday through Sunday. Even if it just matches our $38 million prediction, it will still be better than a lot of people thought it would do just a few weeks ago.
The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part should make about $28 million this weekend. Of course, it will be doing this over four days instead of five, so it should be in a close race for top spot over the three-day weekend. Its reviews, its family-friendly target audience, and the lack of big new competition should help. On the other hand, franchise fatigue might be a real factor here.
Isn’t It Romantic started with $1.8 million on Wednesday and it should have a big bounce on Valentine’s Day. It too is earning good reviews, but not great ones. It’s fine for date night, but it is not a movie that most people will consider one of their favorites. The film is on pace for $22 million over its six-day opening, which is roughly what it’s rumored to have cost to make.
Happy Death Day 2U is the sequel to Happy Death Day, a low-budget horror film. The earlier film earned solid reviews and became a surprise hit. This film’s reviews are weaker, but close enough that I don’t think they will be a hindrance. Happy Death Day 2U earned $992,000 on Wednesday, which was the lowest of the three new releases; however, the film also only cost $9 million to make, which is also the lowest of the three new releases. Sadly, it doesn’t look like it will top its production budget over the six-day weekend, or if it does, it will barely do so, so matching the original’s box office run is impossible. That said, it should still break even early in its home market run.
What Men Want will round out the top five with about $13 million over the four-day weekend. It’s on pace to become a solid midlevel hit.
- Alita: Battle Angel Comparisons
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- Isn’t it Romantic Comparisons
- Happy Death Day 2U Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part, Alita: Battle Angel, Isn’t it Romantic, What Men Want, Happy Death Day 2U, Lego