2018 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Supporting Actress

February 12, 2019

Vice

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we look at the four acting categories, starting with Best Supporting Actress. In this category, there is not an overwhelming favorite this year, which is a bit of a change, as the acting categories haven’t been particularly competitive the past few years.

(Note: All previous awards listed are only for acting and not other categories. However, they are for supporting and lead acting. Previous awards and nominations for TV roles are not included, on the other hand.)

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams for Vice
Tomatometer Score: 66% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globe, BAFTA, and SAG
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actress's Previous Major Nominations: Five Oscars, Seven Golden Globes, Six BAFTAs, Seven SAGs, and One Independent Spirit Award
Actress's Previous Major Wins: Two Golden Globes, One SAG, and One Independent Spirit Award
Notes: This is Amy Adams’ sixth Oscar nomination without a win. This means she’s due for a win and Oscar voters tend to give out make up awards to people who probably should have already won. However, Vice’s reviews are nowhere close to Oscar-worthy and she didn’t win any of the three major awards she was nomination for. However, she lost to three different actresses, so it is not like there is one major winner who is clearly the favorite. I think this means she’s one of two leading candidates, if not the leading candidate.

Maria de Tavira for Roma
Tomatometer Score: 96% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: None
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actress's Previous Major Nominations: Five Oscars, Seven Golden Globes, Six BAFTAs, Seven SAGs, and One Independent Spirit Award
Actress's Previous Major Wins: Two Golden Globes, One SAG, and One Independent Spirit Award
Notes: While this is not Maria de Tavira’s first role, it is the first role of hers that has gotten any significant attention in English-speaking markets. It is very rare for foreign-language films to earn any Oscars outside the Foreign-language Feature category, so she’s an even greater long shot as a result. That said, Roma has a real shot at becoming the Best Picture winner and it could pick up a lot of other wins, if it manages a real wave on Oscar night.

Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk
Tomatometer Score: 94% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globe and Independent Spirit Award
Movie's Previous Major Wins: Golden Globes (One Pending)
Actress's Previous Major Nominations: One SAG
Actress's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: If Beale Street Could Talk was expected to be a major Awards Season player. That didn’t happen. However, Regina King has managed a couple of previous major nominations and even won the Golden Globe, so she has a real chance at winning here as well. I don’t know if she’s the favorite. I don’t know if there even is a favorite, but she’s got a real chance.

Emma Stone for The Favourite
Tomatometer Score: 94% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globe, BAFTA, and SAG
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actress's Previous Major Nominations: Two Oscars, Four Golden Globes, Three BAFTAs, Four SAGs, and One Independent Spirit Award
Actress's Previous Major Wins: One Oscar, One Golden Globe, One BAFTA, and One SAG
Notes: Emma Stone has previously won an Oscar and her co-star in The Favourite, Rachel Weisz, won the BAFTA for this category, so she has almost no chance of winning here. However, as I said, she previously won an Oscar, so you shouldn’t feel bad for her loss.

Rachel Weisz for The Favourite
Tomatometer Score: 94% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globe, BAFTA, and SAG
Movie's Previous Major Wins: BAFTA
Actress's Previous Major Nominations: One Oscars, Two Golden Globes, One BAFTAs, and One SAGs
Actress's Previous Major Wins: One Oscar, One Golden Globe, and One SAG
Notes: It has been a while since Rachel Weisz won her Oscar, but she has an Oscar, so the voters are very unlikely to give her one this year over the two favorites. That said, I don’t think this will be her last Oscar nomination and maybe not even her last win.

Conclusion: If Beale Street Could Talk is the better movie and Regina King deserves to win. However, Oscar voters tend to give make-up Oscars for good performances in substandard movies, so I think Amy Adams is the favorite and will win for Vice.


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Filed under: Awards Season, Vice, Roma, If Beale Street Could Talk, The Favourite, Amy Adams, Regina King, Emma Stone, Rachel Weisz, Maria de Tavira