Preview: February
February 1, 2019
2019 got off to a slow start as the biggest release of January, Glass, missed expectations and as a result, 2019 lost every weekend in the year-over-year comparison. Unfortunately, 2019 isn’t going to turn things around this month, as last February, Black Panther broke all of the records. That doesn’t mean there are no bright spots this month. Both The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part and How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World are virtually guaranteed to reach $100 million domestically, while I wouldn’t be too surprised if one or both hit $200 million. Meanwhile, there are several midlevel hits, one of which could turn into a surprise $100 million hit. That said, there’s a chance all nine movies opening this month combined will earn less than Black Panther did last year.
The first weekend of February is Super Bowl weekend, so it comes as no surprise that there are almost no films attempting to compete with the biggest annual sporting event in the States. In fact, the only film that is opening wide this week, Miss Bala isn’t even expected to open with $10 million, although it should come close. This weekend last year, Winchester was the only film that opened that weekend. I suspect Miss Bala will have a similar opening, but it will earn first place, because 2019 will have much weaker depth leading 2019 to lose in the year-over-year comparison, again.
Gina Rodriguez plays a woman from Los Angeles who travels to Mexico to find her friend who disappeared. When she gets there, she’s kidnapped and forced to become a smuggler for a drug cartel. The film is opening during the Super Bowl weekend and it still has no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. I don’t have a lot of hope for this film’s chances. In fact, the lack of competition might be its biggest asset.
Last Minute Update: The film’s reviews are weaker than anticipated and its box office potential is probably a little under $20 million instead of $25 million.
There are only nine films opening wide in February, four of them are opening wide this week. This includes The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part, which is widely expected to be the biggest hit of the month. The other three films, Cold Pursuit, The Prodigy, What Men Want, are all expected to be midlevel hits and shouldn’t cannibalize each other’s audiences too much. This weekend last year, there were three new releases that opened with a combined $75 million. The Lego Movie 2 could open with $60 million or more during its opening weekend and if that’s the case, 2019 could finally have its first win in the year-over-year competition. It would likely be its last win for a long, long time.
Liam Neeson plays a man looking for revenge after a family member gets into trouble. ... He’s made a lot of these movies lately. In this one, his son dies of a drug overdose, but he suspects a local crime boss is really responsible, so he uses his specialized training... as a snow plough driver, to get revenge. These films used to be very reliable at the box office, but their drawing power has cooled down more recently. I think it will be a financial success, I just don’t think it has a realistic shot at $100 million domestically, unlike the films in the Taken franchise.
Last minute update: The reviews are coming in and they are ... 90% positive. Granted, the average score is 7.3 out of 10, so most critics like it, but few love it. However, this is what most box office hits are aiming for and this should help its box office chances.
The franchise started off with a bang with The LEGO Movie earning more than $250 million domestically. However, none of the other films in this franchise has matched that figure. In fact, each film has gotten worse at the box office. I don’t think The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part will top the original, either with critics or at the box office. That said, I do think it will come closer than any other sequel in the franchise has. It should be the biggest hit of the month and I think it has about a 50/50 shot at earning $200 million domestically. This should be more than enough to break even before the home market.
Taylor Schilling plays a mother who thinks her genius son, played by Jackson Robert Scott, is possessed by demons. It’s a low budget horror movie and it should do well enough compared to its combined budget to break even some time during its home market run. On the down side, it is opening during the busiest weekend of the month. On the plus side, it has no direct competition, at least not during its opening weekend.
Taraji P. Henson plays a sports agent who has trouble dealing with her male colleagues. That is until she develops the ability to read the minds of men. This is a gender-bent remake of What Women Want, which was a monster hit back in 2000. However it hasn’t aged well and this movie would be best to not draw too many comparisons to the original. If the reviews are decent, then the film should become a midlevel hit. I don’t think it has a realistic shot at $100 million, on the other hand.
This weekend is both Valentine’s Day weekend and Presidents Day weekend. It should be a good weekend to release a film, but none of the three films opening this week are expected to be $100 million hits. Alita: Battle Angel has the best shot at the century mark and I wouldn’t be too surprised if it got there. Isn’t it Romantic is in the best position to take advantage of Valentine’s Day. Meanwhile, Happy Death Day 2U is hoping to match the original at the box office. Fighting With My Family is also opening this week, but it is opening in limited release and expanding “everywhere” on the 22nd. It has a real chance to earn some measure of mainstream success, but I don’t think it will expand truly wide, so it won’t be part of this list. This weekend last year, Black Panther opened with more than $200 million during the weekend. No film will match that this weekend. It is possible that no film will match that in total during the entire month. 2019 is going to be absolutely destroyed in the year-over-year comparison.
Alita: Battle Angel is based on a Manga that has previously been adapted into an Anime in Japan. The film has arguably the loudest buzz of any of the three wide releases this week; however, the buzz is not entirely positive. There are some who think the big Anime eyes of the titular Alita is too much for a live action movie. Additionally, the film’s production budget is reported to be $150 million to $200 million. A lot of people who are talking about this film are talking about how it has no chance of paying back that massive investment. I think it will be the biggest hit of the week, but even if it gets to $100 million, that will only be enough to save face. $150 million to $200 million is just too much for a film like this.
Last Minute Update: There are some early reviews and they are “meh”. Its current Tomatometer Score is just 40% positive, but the average score is better at 5.7 out of 10, so most critics don’t like it enough to recommend it, but most don’t hate it. This is still a problem and will likely lower the film’s box office potential. I still think it will have the biggest opening of the weekend, but its legs might be an issue.
I’m a little worried about Happy Death Day 2U. On the one hand, the first film was surprisingly good and a huge financial success. Earning $125 million worldwide on a $5 million budget is going to guarantee a sequel or two. On the other hand, I’m not sure the first film really needed a sequel and I’m worried this film is going to be a huge step down in quality. Even if it does match the original’s reviews, I don’t think it will match the first film’s box office numbers. That said, I think it will come close, assuming it doesn’t get destroyed by critics / moviegoers.
Rebel Wilson stars as a woman living in New York City who hates romantic comedies, considering them to be nothing but lies. One day she escapes from a mugger, but accidentally gets knocked out, only to wake up inside a romantic comedy... a PG-13 rated romantic comedy. She has to make a man fall in love with her in order to make it back to the real world. It’s an interesting setup and Rebel Wilson does have some drawing power, so it could be a hit. Furthermore, it’s opening the day before Valentine’s Day and there’s no way that won’t help it at the box office. On the other hand, romantic comedies are rarely big hits, so I don’t think it will be anything more than a midlevel hit.
The month ends with only one film opening wide, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World. Fortunately, this film has a realistic shot at becoming the biggest hit of the month. Unfortunately, this weekend last year, Black Panther earned $111 million during its second weekend of release. This is about double what most people think The Hidden World will open with, so 2019 will take yet another loss in the year-over-year competition.
The third and possibly final installment in the How to Train Your Dragon franchise. The previous two films have done well domestically and especially internationally. Perhaps this is why the movie opened internationally more than a month before its domestic release date. In some markets, The Hidden World is already ahead of the previous film’s total, so that’s a great sign. Other markets are not as positive, but the overall results suggest this film will either top its predecessor internationally, or come very close. I figure it is a safe best to predict the same thing domestically.
Weekend of February 1st, 2019
Miss Bala
Official Site: MissBala.movie
Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: February 1st, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for sequences of gun violence, sexual and drug content, thematic material, and language.
Source: Remake
Genre: Action
Keywords:
Mexico, Crime Boss, Undercover, Enemies Forced to Work Together, Smuggler, Remake, Foreign-Language Remake, DEA Agent, Kidnap
Directed By: Catherine Hardwicke
Written By: Gareth Dunnet-Alcocer
Starring: Gina Rodriguez
Production Budget: Reported at $15 million
Box Office Potential: $25 million
Weekend of February 8th, 2019
Cold Pursuit
Official Site: ColdPursuit.movie
Distributor: Lionsgate
Release Date: February 8th, 2019
MPAA Rating: R for strong violence, drug material, and some language including sexual references.
Source: Based on Movie
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords:
Drug Dealer, Revenge, Crime Boss, Colorado, Remake, Foreign-Language Remake, Death of a Son or Daughter, Drug Overdose
Directed By: Hans Petter Moland
Written By: Frank Baldwin, Kim Fupz Aakeson
Starring: Liam Neeson
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $30 million to $50 million
Box Office Potential: $55 million
The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part
Official Site: TheLegoMovie.com
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: February 8th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG for mild action and rude humor.
Source: Based on Toy
Genre: Adventure
Keywords:
Gratuitous Cameos, Family Movie, Post Apocalypse, Space Opera, Dinosaurs, Alien Abduction, Alien Invasion
Directed By: Rob Schrab
Written By: Phil Lord, Christopher Miller
Starring: Chris Pratt, Will Arnett, Tiffany Haddish, Stephanie Beatriz, Alison Brie, Elizabeth Banks
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $80 million to $100 million
Box Office Potential: $195 million
The Prodigy
Official Site: WhatsWrongWithMiles.com
Distributor: Orion Pictures
Release Date: February 8th, 2019
MPAA Rating: R for violence, disturbing and bloody images, a sexual reference and brief graphic nudity.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Horror
Keywords:
Supernatural, Scary Kids, Child Prodigy
Directed By: Nicholas McCarthy
Written By: Jeff Buhler
Starring: Taylor Schilling, Jackson Robert Scott
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $10 million
Box Office Potential: $25 million
What Men Want
Official Site: Facebook.com/WhatMenWantMovie
Distributor: Paramount Pictures
Release Date: February 8th, 2019
MPAA Rating: R for language and sexual content throughout, and some drug material.
Source: Based on Movie
Genre: Comedy
Keywords:
Woman in a Male Dominated Profession, Psychics, Narcotics, Accidental Injury, Remake, Genderbending Casting
Directed By: Adam Shankman
Written By: Tina Gordon Chism, Alex Gregory, Peter Huyck, Chris Spain, Jon Zack, Tina Gordon Chism, Jas Waters, Josh Goldsmith, Cathy Yuspa, Diane Drake
Starring: Taraji P. Henson
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $30 million
Box Office Potential: $55 million
Weekend of February 15th, 2019
Alita: Battle Angel
Official Site: FoxMovies.com/Movies/Alita-Battle-Angel
Distributor: 20th Century Fox
Release Date: February 14th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for sequences of sci-fi violence and action, and for some language
Source: Based on Comic/Graphic Novel
Genre: Action
Keywords:
Dystopia, Cyborg, War, Death Sports, Crime Boss, Live Action Cartoon
Directed By: Robert Rodriguez
Written By: James Cameron, Laeta Kalogridis, Robert Rodriguez, Yukito Kishiro
Starring: Rosa Salazar
Production Budget: Reported at between $150 million to $200 million
Box Office Potential: $75 million
Happy Death Day 2U
Official Site: HappyDeathDay.com/
Distributor: Universal
Release Date: February 13th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for violence, language, sexual material and thematic elements.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords:
Teenage Slasher, Time Travel, Murder Mystery, One Day, Revenge, Horror Comedy
Directed By: Christopher Landon
Written By: Christopher Landon
Starring: Jessica Rothe, Suraj Sharma
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimates at under $10 million
Box Office Potential: $45 million
Isn’t it Romantic
Official Site: IsntItRomantic.com/
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: February 13th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for language, some sexual material, and a brief drug reference.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Romantic Comedy
Keywords:
New York City, New York, Love Triangle, Architecture, LGBT, Alternate or Altered Realities
Directed By: Todd Strauss-Schulson
Written By: Erin Cardillo, Dana Fox, Katie Silberman, Erin Cardillo
Starring: Rebel Wilson
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $30 million to $40 million
Box Office Potential: $55 million
Weekend of February 22nd, 2019
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Official Site: HowToTrainYourDragon.com
Distributor: Universal
Release Date: February 22nd, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG for adventure action and some mild rude humor.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Adventure
Keywords:
Vikings, Dragon, Good vs. Evil, War, Explorer, Delayed Sequel
Directed By: Dean DeBlois
Written By: Dean DeBlois, Cressida Cowell
Starring: Jay Baruchel
Production Budget: Reported at $129 million
Box Office Potential: $155 million
Filed under: Monthly Preview, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part, Alita: Battle Angel, Isn’t it Romantic, What Men Want, Fighting With My Family, Miss Bala, Happy Death Day 2U, The Prodigy, Cold Pursuit, How to Train Your Dragon, Lego