Weekend Wrap-Up: Box Office Christmas Clean-up

December 27, 2018

Aquaman

The Christmas holiday is over for most people, although it is not entirely over for some studios. This is making getting all of the box office details much harder to do. In fact, we are still limited to estimated for more than half the top five this weekend. We have enough details now to look at the weekend results and the Christmas Day releases and see which are thriving and which are not. Aquaman dominated the charts with just over $100 million so far, including its paid previews. On the other hand, Mary Poppins Returns missed expectations by a substantial margin. It will still break even. The same can be said of Bumblebee, which could usher in a new era of Transformers movies. Overall, the box office rose by 53% from last weekend to $177 million. This is just 0.3% lower than the same weekend last year; however, last year, Christmas Eve fell on a Sunday and Christmas Eve is a dead zone at the box office. We can’t even compare Christmas Day, because landing on a Monday vs. a Tuesday is a huge difference. Next weekend’s comparison will be much easier to make. Year-to-date, and this is up to Boxing Day, 2018 is ahead by 7.7% or $810 million at $11.37 billion to $10.56 billion. This would be an impressive year, even if no more movie tickets were sold after boxing day.

Aquaman easily won the weekend, and the month, with an estimated $68.0 million over the three-day weekend and $105.7 million over five. This does include $4.7 million in paid previews. This is more than enough to guarantee an impressive profit and prove to Warner Bros. that the new, more optimistic direction the DCEU is taking was a wise move on their part. Granted, its reviews are not as impressive as its box office numbers, but it did have to change course in pre-production, so they are better than anticipated. Additionally, the film earned an A minus from CinemaScore, suggesting fans connected with it more than critics did.

Mary Poppins Returns was a distant second with $23.52 million over the three-day weekend and $49.95 million during its first full week in theaters. Most people, us included, thought it would earn $50 million during the three-day weekend. On the other hand, its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore should really help its legs going forward. Back to the original hand, it cost $130 million to make and it will need amazing legs to break even any time soon.

Bumblebee was next with $21.65 million / $34.25 million during its opening weekend. This film cost less than half as much as four more recent installments in the live-action franchise, while it earned the best reviews and an A minus from CinemaScore, so it should have much better legs. And that’s without taking into account the holiday boost to its legs. It could still match its $102 million production budget, while even if it comes close, Paramount will see this as a good sign to continue in this direction. I’ve seen people compare this film to Batman Begins, which wasn’t a true monster hit at the global box office, but created goodwill for the franchise after its missteps. Bumblebee creates the good will, which allows Prime to earn over $600 million worldwide on a $125 million budget, and now the franchise is back.

Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse fell faster than expected, down to $16.64 million over the three-day weekend for a five-day haul of $25.63 million. Its running tally was $73.73 million by the end of Christmas Day, while it should still get to $100 million by the end of the year. It could be close, on the other hand.

The Mule earned $9.5 million / $16.6 million over the weekend for a total of $42.3 million at the end of Christmas Day. The film is getting lost amongst the new releases / bigger hits, but is still doing well.

Second Act opened in seventh place over the three-day weekend with $6.48 million, but did better after that managing a five-day opening of $10.55 million. Its reviews are mixed and it only managed a B plus from CinemaScore, so its legs should be average, for this time of year. That said, it will only need average legs for this time of year to break even, as it cost just $15.7 million to make.

Welcome to Marwen barely made the top ten with $2.35 million / $4.15 million over the weekend. Its reviews and B minus from CinemaScore won’t help its legs, but they are also not as bad as the Christmas Day releases.

Holmes and Watson is fondly looking back at the time when there were no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. It had potential back than. Its actual reviews are just 6% positive and it only earned a D plus from CinemaScore. It is exceedingly rare for mainstream comedy to earn less than a B, so to only manage a D plus is something special. It also missed box office predictions with $6.43 million on Christmas Day and it very likely will have very short legs.

Vice matched expectations nearly perfectly with $4.75 million. Unfortunately, while its reviews remain in the overall positive level, it only managed a C plus from CinemaScore and that’s going to hurt its legs.

- Weekend Box Office Chart
- Christmas Day Box Office Chart

- Aquaman Comparisons
- Mary Poppins Returns Comparisons
- Bumblebee Comparisons
- Second Act Comparisons
- Welcome to Marwen Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Wrap-up, Aquaman, Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse 3D, Bumblebee, Vice, Holmes & Watson, Welcome to Marwen, Second Act, The Mule, Transformers, DC Extended Universe