Weekend Prediction: Countdown to the Weekend
September 20, 2018
It’s a busier week than expected, as there are four films opening wide or semi-wide. The House with a Clock in its Walls is the only one with a shot at first place. In fact, it might be the only new release in the top five. Fahrenheit 11/9 could earn as much as $10 million, but it could also fail to reach the top five with $5 million. Life Itself is aiming even lower, but there’s an outside chance all things line up correctly and it earns a spot in the top five. On the other hand, Assassination Nation is opening semi-wide and it could miss the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Kingsman: The Golden Circle opened with nearly $40 million and two other films earned more than $20 million. This weekend, there might not be a single film with $20 million at the box office.
The House with a Clock in its Walls is not the first kids movie Jack Black has starred in. In fact, Goosebumps came out about this time in 2015. It earned $80 million domestically, starting with a $23.62 million opening weekend. This film’s reviews are not as good as Goosebumps’ reviews were, while its release date is not as close to Halloween. I don’t think it will open as well, because of these two factors, but I think it will be a hit with just over $20 million during its opening weekend. That’s a good opening for a film that reportedly cost $42 million to make.
A Simple Favor could rise to second place with close to $10 million. Its reviews were easily the best of the four releases from last weekend, while Paul Feig’s films tend to have really long legs. If it can come close to $10 million, then it could reach $50 million domestically.
The Predator will also compete for second place, also with between $9 million and $10 million. Sadly, even getting to $10 million is likely out of reach, as that would mean a sub-60% drop-off. It doesn’t have the reviews to suggests legs that long. It could fall to fourth place, but I think it will avoid that fate, barely.
The Nun fell faster than expected last weekend and while I think it will hold on better this weekend, landing in fourth place with just over $9 million is likely, leaving it just shy of $100 million domestically. The film has already broken even and there’s another installment in the franchise on the way, so there’s no reason to be down about this result.
Michael Moore is one of the best-known political documentarians currently working and Fahrenheit 9/11 is still one of highest grossing documentaries of all time. However, his drawing power is way down and he has annoyed a lot of his old target audience. Fahrenheit 11/9’s reviews are the best of the four new releases on this week’s list. However, it won’t match his biggest hits. It might not even open in the top five. I think it will get there with between $7 million and $8 million. That’s great for a documentary and likely more than it cost to make.
Up next is Life Itself, which is disappointing critics. Its writer / director, Dan Fogelman, created the Award-winning TV show This Is Us and many were hoping this film would have the same quality. That didn’t happen. In fact, its Tomatometer Score dipped below 10% positive for a bit. The film has a shot at the top five, if some of the competition misses expectations, but I think sixth or seventh place with $6 million is more likely.
Assassination Nation is the final new release of the week. I thought it would be a limited release, but it is opening semi-wide in approximately 1,400 theaters. Its reviews are mixed. Its Tomatometer Score is 69% positive, but the average score is just 5.9 out of ten, which isn’t good. Additionally, it is a black comedy / thriller and black comedies rarely do well in theaters. Finally, this is Neon’s widest opening ever and there’s some doubt the studio can handle such a wide release. In fact, if it avoids the Mendoza Line, it could be in third place in the company’s history by the end of the weekend. Unfortunately, barely missing the Mendoza Line is probably all the film will manage to do giving it just under $4 million over the weekend.
- The House with a Clock in its Walls Comparisons
- Fahrenheit 11/9 Comparisons
- Life Itself Comparisons
- Assassination Nation Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Predator, The Nun, Fahrenheit 11/9, The House with a Clock in its Walls, Life Itself, A Simple Favor, Assassination Nation, The Conjuring, Jack Black, Michael Moore, Dan Fogelman, Paul Feig