Weekend Predictions: Are the New Releases Brave Enough to Take On Black Panther?

February 22, 2018

Game Night

Three wide releases are attempting to take on Black Panther at the box office; none will be successful. Game Night is the widest release of the week and its reviews are amazing. Annihilation is barely opening in 2,000 theaters, but its reviews are even better. Then there’s Every Day, which is just hoping to not get lost in the crowd. All three new releases combined won’t earn half as much as Black Panther will earn this weekend, so the real competition for the returning box office champ is this weekend last year. Get Out debuted with $33.38 million, while the total box office was $123.61 million. Black Panther won’t get to $123.61 million, but it should do well enough to keep 2018 significantly ahead of 2017.

Black Panther beat all expectations last weekend with $202.00 million. It will remain in first place, but there are some questions as to how well it will hold up. On the one hand, its reviews are stellar and it earned an A plus from CinemaScore. Not only that, but it constantly beat estimates throughout the week, showing its legs were already long. However, it is also a massive blockbuster that had some of the loudest hype and when the Fanboy Effect goes up against stellar reviews, the Fanboy Effect almost always wins. That said, the film does have a shot at $100 million over the weekend, which would make it just the fourth film to earn $100 million during its second weekend of release. I think the post-holiday decline will prevent that, but it will come close with $95 million.

Game Night will open in second place; that much seems assured. The question is whether or not it will come close to $20 million, or if it will be stuck in the low to mid teens. Given its reviews, I think it will finish on the higher end of that range. Granted, the competition is harsh, but I think the studio will be happy with an $18 million opening.

Peter Rabbit needs about $10 million to remain on pace for $100 million domestically. I’m going with just under $11 million, but it could come close to $12 million, with a little luck.

Annihilation has 90% positive reviews, but it is barely opening in more than 2,000 theaters. This strongly suggests the studio doesn’t think they have a hit on their hands. Considering what studio that is, they are probably right. Paramount has done so poorly the past few years that it is getting harder and harder to call them a major studio and Lionsgate has arguably surpassed them. Because of this, Annihilation likely won’t live up to its potential and won’t even open with $10 million. It should come close, but it won’t quite get there.

Fifty Shades Freed will round out the top five with $7 million over the weekend for a running tally of nearly $90 million after three weeks of release.

Every Day is a young adult adaptation, which is a genre that has long since fallen off its peak. Additionally, the film’s reviews are mixed, so there’s likely not a lot of crossover appeal here, further hurting its box office chances. Finally, the buzz is just quiet. The film could miss the Mendoza Line, which would give it $3 million during its opening weekend. I’m not that pessimistic, but I don’t think it will do better than $4 million.

- Game Night Comparisons
- Annihilation Comparisons
- Every Day Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Black Panther, Fifty Shades Freed, Annihilation, Get Out, Peter Rabbit, Game Night, Every Day