2017 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Supporting Actress
February 20, 2018
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and who should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we look at the four acting categories, starting with Best Supporting Actress. In this category, there is an overwhelming favorite. And here’s a spoiler for the rest of the week, every single acting category has an overwhelming favorite.
(Note: All previous awards listed are only for acting and not other categories. However, they are for supporting and lead acting. Previous awards and nominations for TV roles are not included, on the other hand.)
Best Supporting Actress
Allison Janney for I, Tonya
Lesley Manville for Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf for Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer for The Shape of Water
Conclusion: Of the four acting categories, Best Supporting Actress is the closest. It is the closest, but Allison Janney is still a three-to-one favorite over Laurie Metcalf.
Mary J. Blige for Mudbound
Tomatometer Score: 96% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globes and Two SAG
Movie's Previous Major Wins: Independent Spirit Awards
Actress's Previous Major Nominations: None
Actress's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: Mary J. Blige won the Robert Altman Award at the Independent Spirit Awards for best ensemble cast. However, that’s the only major acting award she won in her career and she has no major Awards Season success, at least not as an actress. (She has won five Grammys.) With no wins this year and no history to draw on, she has to be seen as a long shot for the Oscar.
Tomatometer Score: 90% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Independent Spirit Awards, Golden Globes, BAFTA, and SAG
Movie's Previous Major Wins: Golden Globes, BAFTA, and SAG
Actress's Previous Major Nominations: Two Independent Spirit Awards and Four SAGs
Actress's Previous Major Wins: Two SAGs
Notes: Allison Janney has earned nearly every major nomination a supporting actress could earn and has won all of the ones she has been nominated for, so far. With a 100% success rate, there’s little reason to think Allison Janney won’t win the Oscar.
Tomatometer Score: 91% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: BAFTA
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actress's Previous Major Nominations: Three BAFTAs
Actress's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: Lesley Manville is the closest we have to a surprise in this category. Her only other previous major nominations were for the BAFTAs and she’s British, so that’s an advantage for that award.
Tomatometer Score: 90% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Independent Spirit Awards, Golden Globes, BAFTA, and Two SAG
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actress's Previous Major Nominations: None
Actress's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: Laurie Metcalf has one more major nomination than Allison Janney has earned, best Ensemble Cast at the SAGs. This means you can’t entirely dismiss her chances of winning. However she hasn’t been able to convert a single one of them into a win, so she’s still a long shot.
Tomatometer Score: 92% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globes and BAFTA
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actress's Previous Major Nominations: Two Oscars, Two Golden Globes, One BAFTA, and Four SAGs
Actress's Previous Major Wins: One Oscar, One Golden Globe, One BAFTA, and Three SAGs
Notes: It is rare for an actor to win the first Oscar they are nominated for, but Octavia Spencer managed that feat. It is also rare for an actor to win their second Oscar soon after winning their first. Octavia Spencer won’t win this year. However, I don’t think she’s done at the Oscars.
Filed under: Awards Season, I, Tonya, Mudbound, The Shape of Water, Phantom Thread, Lady Bird, Mary J. Blige, Allison Janney, Lesley Manville, Laurie Metcalf, Octavia Spencer