Weekend Predictions: Will Happy Day be the Death of the Box Office?
October 12, 2017
I thought this would be a really busy weekend with Blade Runner 2049 repeating in first place and four wide releases competing for spots in the top five. However, last weekend, Blade Runner 2049 missed expectations, so it won’t dominate the chart this weekend. Meanwhile, two of the four wide releases are not going to open truly wide. This leaves Happy Death Day with a relatively easy path to first place. The Foreigner has almost made enough in China to pay for its production budget, so as long as it can cover its advertising budget here, it will break even before it reaches the home market. Meanwhile, Professor Marston & The Wonder Women is opening semi-wide and Marshall is opening nationwide. They may or may not open in the top ten. This weekend last year, The Accountant opened in first place with close to $25 million, while all three wide releases combined made $38 million. It is going to be tough for 2017 to match that.
Happy Death Day is your typical teenage slasher mixed with Groundhog Day and the end result is a horror comedy that is earning good, but not great, reviews. A lot of critics are saying it is not scary enough to be a horror movie and the repetitive nature hurts the comedy. That said, most of these critics are still saying it is entertaining and worth checking out. The film’s box office chances are good, as it is a horror film opening on Friday the 13th less than three weeks from Halloween, so it could open with more than $20 million over the weekend, but I think $18 million is a safer bet. Since the film reportedly cost just $5 million to make, this is a good start and it would take terrible legs to fail to break even before it reaches the home market.
Blade Runner 2049 was expected to earn $45 million to $50 million last weekend, but that didn’t happen. Now Warner Bros. is just hoping the reviews help its leg so they can save face. If it can come close to a 50% drop-off with $16 million over the weekend, then they should be happy. I’m going with $15 million, which isn’t a bad decline.
It looked like all four new releases would earn positive reviews, but The Foreigner’s reviews just dipped below the 60% level. The film will get close to $100 million in its native China, so anything more than $10 million during its opening weekend here will be fine. It might even challenge Blade Runner 2049 for second place with close to $15 million. I think being a little more cautious is wise so I’m going with $12 million.
It should remain in the top five one more week, earning just under $6 million for a total of $315 million after six weeks of release. It will finish with about $325 million domestically and close to $700 million worldwide. That’s outstanding for a film with a $35 million budget.
The Mountain Between Us will be in a close race for fourth place with between $5 million and $6 million. It reportedly cost $35 million to make, so it will need help internationally and on the home market to break even.
Professor Marston & The Wonder Women could earn a spot in the top five as well. Its opening in just 1,229 theaters, but its reviews are over 90% positive. Unfortunately, its subject matter isn’t exactly mainstream, so a $4 million opening weekend is likely all it is going to manage.
Finally there’s Marshall, which is opening in 821 theaters. Its buzz has been really quiet, so it needs amazing reviews to thrive in theaters. On the one hand, the film’s Tomatometer Score is 86% positive. On the other hand, its average review is only 6.8, so while the vast majority of critics like it, very few of them love it. I don’t think it will earn a spot in the top ten, but it should come close with close to $3 million.
- Happy Death Day Comparisons
- The Foreigner Comparisons
- Professor Marston and The Wonder Women Comparisons
- Marshall Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Mountain Between Us, Blade Runner 2049, Marshall, It, Happy Death Day, The Foreigner, Professor Marston & The Wonder Women