Another Week, Another Trilogy

August 1, 2003

Two movies are being released this week and both are getting better reviews that I thought they would. Neither is getting good reviews, but they are higher than I thought they'd be.

A safe bet to take first place, American Wedding is the third feature in the American Pie trilogy. Reviews for this installment are surprisingly high, currently at 58%, just shy of the overall positive mark and just shy of the first film. Also, given it's a straight up comedy and not an action film I think it will get a bit of a boost. $42 million for its opening weekend and a profitable run.

Speaking of profitable runs, Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over should do much better during its second weekend that most this year. It should earn another $21 million to raise its total take to $70 million in just two weeks. That's more than its total budget, but after taking the Theatres' share into account, it still has a few more weeks till the studio sees a profit.

Becoming the 5th film of 2003 to break $200 million, Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl is looking at $16 million at the box office. At this point $250 million is looking like a sure thing. Can The Matrix Reloaded be overtaken, again?

Dropping the least this week will be Seabiscuit with $15 million. That's less than 30%, but still not enough given its high budget. The best the studio can hope for is some Oscar buzz when it's released to video.

Another 50% drop is in store for Bad Boys II. This will leave it with only $10 million at the box office and in fifth place. That's enough to cross the $100 million mark, but it won't beat its production budget.

Gigli has been getting a lot of press recently, and none of it good. Some are already calling it the worst movie of all time. Reviews are the worst for a widely reviewed movie this year, 4% overall and 0% from the Cream of the Crop reviewers. Most predictions have Gigli bombing at the box office, but I'm going to buck the trend and say it's going to bomb in epic proportions. We're talking bombing of From Justin to Kelly proportions. So bad Sony's stock will drop into negative numbers. So bad Miramax will push back Jersey Girl to some time in the next century. So bad the very fabric of space-time will be torn asunder. Ok, maybe not that bad, but it certainly won't be good. $3 million this week, less than $1 million the next and out on video by September.

On a happier note, Finding Nemo entered the Top Ten All-time Domestic Grosses this week. And it should pass Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone by the end of the weekend. After that, there's a large gap to the next film, Forrest Gump.

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Filed under: Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl, Bad Boys II, Seabiscuit, Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over, American Wedding, Gigli