Bourne Becomes Supreme

July 26, 2004

The weekend results were much better than expected, at least overall. Both new films took in more than expected, while all but one the holdovers beat our prediction. Even so, the week-to-week change was again very flat with a miniscule 0.37% drop from last weekend, but was 3.57% smaller than the same weekend last year.

Coming in 2006, The Bourne Ultimatum. Ok, the film hasn't officially been given the go ahead yet, but with The Bourne Supremacy earning an impressive $52.5 million at the box office over the weekend, it's only a matter of time. That was nearly double the opening of the original and with great reviews the film will have the legs needed to make the studio very, very happy. However, I don't think they should assume they have another James Bond on their hands. Writer Robert Ludlum only wrote three Bourne novels before his death [Ed note: Eric van Lustbader recently authored a fourth book], and I think it would be a mistake to try and extend the franchise beyond that.

I, Robot tumbled to just $21.7 million during its second weekend of release. It's going to be difficult for the film to match its total budget of $150 million with its domestic total. But it should still make a profit by the time the home market is taken into account.

At $16.7 million, Catwoman did earn more than expected. But even Super Hero movies with good reviews tend to have short legs, so this film's entertainingly bad reviews will lead to a very short shelf life. And with a total budget of $140 million, the film will need to do very impressive international / home market business for Warner Bros. not to take a bath on this one.

While Spider-man 2 dropped one spot farther than expected, it actually more than matched the predicted box office taking in $15.0 million. Unless something unexpected happens next weekend, this is the last one Spider-Man 2 will spend in the top 5. However, it should still pull in a healthy amount at the box office despite shedding theatres and climb into the top ten on the All-Time charts.

The battle for fifth place was not as close as I had expected as A Cinderella Story easily lasted another weekend in the top five, taking in $7.8 million dropping a mere 42%. That is not to say Anchorman did poorly with $7.0 million, both these films are earning a stellar amount considering their respective budgets are half that of the average Hollywood film. However, I think most people were expecting more from a Will Ferrell flick.

As expected, Fahrenheit 9/11 hit $100 million on Saturday. The film's success is unprecedented and will hopefully help make documentaries more mainstream.

One last note, Shrek 2 barely made it into the top 10 during its tenth weekend of release. But it is now only $2 million from overtaking Star Wars: The Phantom Menace for fourth place on the All-Time charts. This is more than close enough for Dreamworks to give the film a little more advertising to help push it over the top, and I've already noticed an increase in ads on TV. And with E.T. just $6 million away, the ads will continue till that films falls as well.


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Filed under: Shrek 2, Spider-Man 2, The Bourne Supremacy, I, Robot, Fahrenheit 9/11, Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy, A Cinderella Story, Catwoman