Somebody Put a Hit on the Box Office - Update!

June 10, 2005

It's another crowded weekend with four wide releases, well, four if you stretch the definition of wide slightly. There's only one saturation level release (3,000 or more theaters), and two of the new films couldn't crack 2,000. To top things off, at the moment not one of these films is earning overall positive reviews. Even so, we should see a significant increase in the total box office compared to last weekend, but there is likely going to be another drop-off on a year-to-year basis.

Mr. and Mrs. Smith should be the clear winner this weekend, but perhaps not the massive hit the studio was aiming for. The reason for this is twofold, firstly the reviews are not that good. Secondly, the media circus surrounding Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie's relationship is overshadowing the movie. Look for $40 million over the weekend and $120 million overall.

Madagascar should slip to second place adding just over $18 million to its box office over the weekend. This despite direct competition for the family demographic.

Both Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith and The Longest Yard should bring in roughly $14 million and end in a virtual tie for third place. I would give the former film a slight advantage over the latter, but it really is too close to call.

I forgot a film, namely Cinderella Man, which should finish in fifth place with $12.5 million. That's not a bad second weekend drop-off, but not nearly enough given the film's expectations.

The second new release of the week is The Adventures of Shark Boy & Lava Girl, the latest film by Robert Rodriguez. Earlier in the month I had high hopes for the film, thinking it could be the start of a franchise like Spy Kids. However, the reviews just simply are not there. Really hurting the film is the main drawing power, the 3-D, just doesn't work. It's not that it would have been a great story without it, but it certainly doesn't help. The film should bring in $12 million over the weekend and have reasonable, but not great legs.

Missing the top five will be High Tension, the gory French horror film. The film is not earning particularly strong reviews, but has an outside chance and becoming a surprise hit in the same vein as Saw. This is unlikely, but it should finish with $7 million, which might be enough for a modest increase in theatre counts next weekend.

The Honeymooners has disaster written all over it: awful reviews, low theatre count, no advanced buzz. Even with a low production budget and an equally low P&A budget the film will have a nearly impossible time earning a profit. Currently industry tracking has it finishing low in the top ten with just $5 million, but it could be one of those films where tracking isn't particularly accurate. Best case scenario has the film beating High Tension with $10 million and still missing the top five.

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Filed under: Star Wars Ep. III: Revenge of the Sith, Madagascar, Mr. and Mrs. Smith, The Longest Yard, Cinderella Man, The Honeymooners, High Tension, The Adventures of Sharkboy and Lavagirl in 3-D