Harry Potter is Very Lively
November 23, 2010
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I helped the overall box office explode from last weekend. In fact, it earned more than all films last weekend combined, propelling the box office to a 60% week-over-week increase. Unfortunately, the rest of the box office was on the weak side, and the total of $194 million was 25% lower than the same weekend last year. Ouch. 2010 is still ahead of 2009 at $9.36 billion to $9.14 billion, but that lead isn't safe given the sharp drop-off we just suffered. Hopefully we will get back on the winning track soon. Even single-digit loses will ensure 2010 sets another box office record.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I's opening weekend was exactly in the middle of the range of expectations with $125.02 million. Not only was this the largest weekend opening in the franchise, it was also the second best opening weekend of November and the second best day in November. The only November release to top it was New Moon, which went on to earn just shy of $300 million domestically. On the one hand, Deathly Hallows: Part I is earning much better reviews and that should lead to stronger legs. On the other hand, it is Part I and not just the latest installment. As such, there isn't as satisfying an ending to the story and it just sets up Part II. This might result in fewer people seeing the film multiple times. And it's not like fans won't be able to get the film on Blu-ray right before the last film is released in theaters. That said $300 million is still the low end of domestic expectations, while $1 billion worldwide is within its reach.
MegaMind matched expectations as perfectly as you could expect pulling in $16.01 million over the weekend lifting its total to $109.31 million after three weeks of release. With Thanksgiving this weekend, it should hold onto its audience quite well and $150 million in total is very likely.
Unstoppable held on even better, down just 43% to $13.01 million over the weekend for a total of $41.87 million after two. It's still on pace to match original expectations, more or less, but it is still a little on the low side, especially considering the film's production budget.
Due Date was within a rounding error of Thursday's prediction with $8.91 million over the weekend, for a total of $72.43 million after three. It should reaching $90 million relatively soon, but it will likely finish its run just shy of $100 million.
The less said about The Next Three Days, the better. It opened in fifth place with a mere $6.54 million over the weekend and even with respectable reviews and the holiday weekend coming up, there's little hope this film will stick around. If it is still playing in 2000 theaters by the second weekend in December, I'll be impressed.
Looking in on the sophomore class, we see that Morning Glory held on quite well, down just 43.5% to $5.20 million over the past three days, for a total of $19.82 million after twelve. It's going to fail to match its production budget, but it won't be a complete disaster either. On the other hand, Skyline plummeted close to 70% to just $3.56 million over the weekend and $17.77 million after two. That was the worst week-to-week decline in the top ten and the second worst in the top 20.
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Due Date, Morning Glory, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I, Unstoppable, The Next Three Days, Skyline, Megamind