Weekend Estimates: New Year's Eve Brings No Cheer
December 11, 2011
A dismal weekend is predicted all round this weekend, and the total box office is set to record its poorest score in three years, and its worst December weekend in over a decade. With Breaking Dawn, Part 1 continuing its rapid decline, and no hits coming out since, the top of the chart has a decidedly anemic look to it. New Year's Eve will be top with around $13.7 million, a number that is miles behind last year's $56.3 million debut for Valentine's Day. The Sitter will come second with $10 million, which is less of an embarrassment, given its edgier nature, but still well below par.
One small ray of hope comes from the fact that a couple returning films are performing fairly well on a week-to-week basis. Arthur Christmas will be down just 11% according to Sony Pictures while Paramount estimates a decline of 19% for Hugo. Both films should continue to play well through the Holiday Season, although with grosses to date of (coincidentally) $33.49 million, neither film can be considered a real success yet.
There are two more bright sparks among limited releases. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy will earn a very impressive $300,000 or so in just four theaters and top the Per Theater Chart this weekend. Young Adult, meanwhile, will start with $320,000 in eight venues. Both films will attempt to ride early buzz into more theaters in coming weeks, with Young Adult expanding to 1,000 movie houses next weekend.
Bruce Nash bruce.nash@the-numbers.com
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Hugo, Arthur Christmas, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1, Young Adult, New Year’s Eve, The Sitter, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy