Friday Estimates: Will Deathly Hallows 2 Break the Weekend Record?

July 16, 2011

The Harry Potter franchise looks as though it may end as it began, with records for (among other things) biggest single day and biggest weekend. Back in 2001, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone set then-record marks of $32.3 million for the day and $90.3 million for the weekend. On Friday, Deathly Hallows: Part 2 showed how it's done these days with a stellar $92.1 million opening day, which would have been enough for the weekend record just ten years ago. Its next goal is The Dark Knight's $158.4 million opening weekend, which is very much in its sights, but will still take a little bit of work.

If we assume Deathly Hallows 2 tracks the daily performance of Deathly Hallows 1, it will drop about 40% on Saturday to around $55 million and another third on Sunday, to $37 million or so. That would give it a weekend of over $180 million. However, the massive midnight performance on Thursday night/Friday morning makes that a rather optimistic projection.

If we take out the $43.5 million in midnight grosses for Hallows 2 and the $24 million earned at midnight by Hallows 1, the more conservative projections become $48 million on Saturday and $32 million on Sunday, for a total of $172 million over the weekend. That's still a handy $14 million ahead of The Dark Knight, but doesn't take into account the fact that the final movie in the franchise is likely to be more front-loaded than its predecessor.

If we assume that 10% of Potter fans saw the movie on Friday this time around instead of Saturday, we could see the rest of the weekend roll out with $40 million on Saturday, $27 million on Sunday, and a final total of $159 million. Basically a tie with The Dark Knight.

If I were a gambling man, I would call it 50-50 that Deathly Hallows Part 2 will break the all-time record for a single weekend. My hunch is that it will just get there with perhaps $160 million, but it will likely be a close call.

- Biggest single days at the box office
- Biggest weekends
- Biggest opening weekends

Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Friday Estimates, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II