Weekend Wrap-Up: Gain for Pain, but Wedding Small
April 30, 2013
My enthusiasm for this column is nearly zero because of Iron Man 3. Final international box office numbers are not in, but studio estimates are not only amazing, but they are record-breaking. This will overshadow anything I have to talk about today. At least Pain and Gain had a better than expected opening. On the other hand, The Big Wedding failed to make an impact. Sadly, there was more bad news than good news and the overall box office fell 16% to $92 million. This was 17% lower than the same weekend last year, while the year-to-date numbers got just a little bit weaker. At the moment, 2013 is 12% behind 2012's pace at $2.89 billion to $3.27 billion. Worse still, the year-over-year comparisons are about to run into The Avengers, so unless Iron Man 3 is record-breaking, the year-over-year comparison is going to get worse before it gets better.
Pain and Gain opened in first place with $20.24 million, which was on the higher end of expectations, but not a complete surprise. This victory will be short-lived, as mixed reviews and massive competition will likely kill the movie in the coming week. That said, the film will match its $26 million production budget very soon and as long as it doesn't bomb internationally, it should break even sooner rather than later. That's better than most films that open this time of the year.
Oblivion fell faster than expected, down 52% to $17.80 million over the weekend for a total of $65.09 million after two. Normally this would be enough to get to $100 million, assuming the studio would give it a little push at the end. However, this film is going to be crushed by Iron Man 3. Its per theater average isn't bad at $4,695, but chances are Iron Man 3 will likely earn seven to eight times that, so theater owners will be giving it every available screen possible, which means direct competition like Oblivion will get squeezed out.
42 is also on a path that takes it close to $100 million, but it will likely come up a little short. This past weekend it pulled in $10.66 million for a three-week total of $69.01 million. This is already enough to be considered a midlevel hit.
The Big Wedding won't be as lucky. This film opened in fourth place with $7.59 million. Additionally, its reviews are among the worst of the year. There's little reason to suspect it will stick around any longer than theater owners are contractually obligated to keep it.
As expected, The Croods earned fifth place with $6.73 million over the weekend for a total of $163.15 million after six weeks of release.
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, The Croods, Iron Man 3, Pain & Gain, Oblivion, The Big Wedding, 42