Weekend Wrap-Up: Godzilla Helps 2014 Climb Back on Top

May 20, 2014

I thought Godzilla would be a monster hit. I mentioned that possibility in the monthly preview and the weekend predictions. However, I was in the minority and I reduced my expectations. That turns out to be a mistake. Godzilla opened with $93.19 million over the weekend, which is a better opening than The Amazing Spider-Man 2 managed, but it wasn't quite up to Captain America: The Winter Soldier. It also helped the overall box office soar to $178 million, which is 30% more than last weekend. More importantly, it was 16% more than the same weekend last year. 2014 is now ahead of 2013 by a margin of $185 million or 5.3% at $3.66 billion to $3.48 billion.

Godzilla became the second biggest opening of the year so far earning $93.19 million over the weekend. This is almost as much as Pacific Rim earned in total. With strong reviews by critics and Memorial Day long weekend next weekend, its legs should be better than average for the genre meaning it should have no trouble getting to $250 million domestically and it could double that figure internationally. (It is too soon to tell with regards to the latter figure.) This means it should break even before the home market, which means a sequel is probably already in the planning stage. The film certainly left an opening for a sequel. Hopefully next time around Godzilla will get more screen time than the boring humans do. Either that or they make the human characters actually interesting. One of the two.

Neighbors added $25.07 million over the weekend to its running tally, which rose to $90.59 million after ten days of release. At this pace, it will have no trouble getting to $100 million, but $150 million might be out of reach. This is still amazing, especially for a film that cost just $18 million to make. In fact, it has likely already broken even and will be a big boost to everyone's careers.

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 held on a little better than expected with $16.80 million over the weekend for a total of $172.17 million after three weeks of release. At this pace, it will reach $200 million with ease. However, it might fall out of the top five before it does so. It will break even sooner rather than later, but I don't know if the studio is truly excited with this result. They have four more films in the franchise and declining returns will catch up sooner rather than later.

Million Dollar Arm opened on the low end of expectations with $10.52 million over the weekend, which was enough for fourth place. Its reviews rose to 61% positive, which should help its legs a little bit. Also, given its target demographic, it should have good legs and the international feel might help it perform better than most baseball movies perform outside of the United States. I don't think it will break even before it reaches the home market, but with a $25 million production budget, eventually it could cover all of its expenses.

The Other Woman held on a little better than expected with $6.31 million over the weekend for a total of $71.67 million after four weeks of release. This will be the film's last weekend in the top five, but given its worldwide total so far, it may have already broken even.

There were two other films in the sophomore class, with Legends of Oz: Dorothy's Return landing in ninth place with $1.96 million over the weekend for a total of $6.56 million after ten days of release. The film reportedly cost $70 million to make, so even if it had earned $6.56 million during its opening day, it still would have needed strong international sales to breakeven. Given this result, it will likely not get theatrical releases in most international markets. Mom's Night Out fell faster down nearly 60% to $1.77 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $7.20 million. It didn't cost nearly as much to make, but unless it finds an audience on the home market, it won't break even.

One last note, Captain America: The Winter Soldier became just the second film of the year to reach the $250 million milestone. At this pace, it should top The LEGO movie for biggest hit of the year, but it might get beaten there, depending on how big X-Men: Days of Future Past is.

- C.S.Strowbridge

Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return, The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, X-Men: Days of Future Past, Godzilla, The Other Woman, Neighbors, Million Dollar Arm, Moms’ Night Out, Spider-Man