September 11th, 2019
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There are two monster hits coming out this week, Aladdin and John Wick: Chapter 3 — Parabellum, and this has scared away almost all of the competition. Fortunately, John Wick is amazing and a clear Pick of the Week contender. There was only one other film in contention for that title, Echo in the Canyon. Granted, I like Parabellum more, but it was already awarded the Pick of the Week when it hit VOD, so Echo in the Canyon gets the honor this week.
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January 12th, 2016
It is a busy week for first run releases with four of them on this week's list. Of these, The Martian is the biggest and the best. It would have been the Pick of the Week except for two things. One, the screener is late. Two, David Bowie passed away over the weekend. He died after an 18-month battle with cancer and just two days after his last album came out. This is the the most poignant Rock'n'Roll death since Freddie Mercury and it seems fitting to give Blackstar the title of Pick of the Week.
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December 4th, 2015
Krampus's "Midnight" screenings started at 7 pm on Thursday and pulled in a healthy $637,000. This is a little more than Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension managed during its previews and that film had the benefit of being part of a long-running franchise, and sequels tend to be more front-loaded at the box office. Additionally, Krampus's reviews are positive, which should help its legs. Look for between $11 million and $12 million for the weekend, which is nearly identical to expectations..
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November 10th, 2015
As expected, Spectre remained in first pulling in $117.8 million in 73 markets for totals of $223.1 million internationally and $293.1 million worldwide. This is almost as much as it cost to make, so if it can double this figure, it should be able to break even eventually. The film's biggest market was the U.K. where it added $19.99 million on 696 screens over the weekend for a total of $98.82 million. It has already overtaken Jurassic World for the biggest hit of the year in the U.K. and should have no trouble rocketing into the top five on the all-time chart there. The film's biggest opening was in Germany, where it pulled in $18.06 million on 1,460 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $20.26 million. This is about 15% lower than Skyfall's opening in that market. Likewise, the film wasn't as strong during its debut in Russia earning $6.29 million on 2,112 screens, compared to $8.27 million on 1,254 screens for Skyfall. At this pace, Spectre will definitely fail to match Skyfall, but anything close to $800 million will be enough to break even, perhaps before it reaches the home market. It all depends on how much its global advertising campaign cost.
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November 5th, 2015
Spectre opened in first place with $80.4 million during its seven-day opening weekend. That doesn't seem like a huge amount, especially considering some of the opening weekends we've seen on the international stage this year. However, there is a mitigating factor. It was only playing in six markets. This includes the U.K., where the film broke records with $62.82 million in 651 theaters. This is equivalent to a $300 million opening week here, which would be the record for a seven-day box office here. We shouldn't get too ahead of ourselves, as Bond films have a natural affinity for that market. It does mean Spectre has a real shot at a $100 million opening weekend here.
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November 2nd, 2015
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Most people expected the box office to be really weak this past weekend, but I don't think anyone anticipated this. How bad was this past weekend? All three new releases missed the Mendoza line* and there were no new releases in the top five. The overall box office was just $75 million, which was the lowest for the year and the fourth worst weekend in the past decade. This represents a 28% drop-off from last week and a 21% drop-off from the same weekend last year. 2015's overall lead over 2014 shrunk from 5.2% to 4.7%. The overall lead fell by $40 million at $8.69 billion to $8.31 billion. This is reason to panic, or it would be if Spectre wasn't opening on Friday. The film is breaking records in the U.K. and should be an explosive hit here. Hopefully it will do well enough that we can pretend the past two weeks never happened.
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October 26th, 2015
Most of the new releases were not expected to do well at the box office. ... Almost no one saw this coming. We had some near-record bombs this weekend and even the best of the new releases were terrible. This left The Martian in first place; in fact, the top three spots and four of the top five were held by holdovers. The best new release, The Last Witch Hunter, barely cracked the $10 million mark. The overall box office fell 14% from last weekend to $105 million. This was also 9.5% lower than the same weekend last year. Midweek numbers were better this year than last year, so the year-over-year actually improved and 2015 now has a 5.2% lead over 2014 at $8.60 billion to $8.18 billion.
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October 1st, 2015
September ended on a record note with the debut of Hotel Transylvania 2. Additionally, there was great depth and 2015's lead over 2014 grew to nearly $500 million. How do things look going forward? The month starts out with The Martian, which should have no trouble becoming the biggest hit of the month and might even top $200 million. On the other hand, no other film is expected to get to $100 million. There's only one or two that will even come close. Fortunately, last October was very similar with one $100 million hit, Gone Girl, while two other films came close, Annabelle and Fury. It looks like it will be up to the depth films from both years to determine which year comes out on top.
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June 1st, 2015
May turned out to be softer than anticipated with The Avengers: Age of Ultron missing expectations by about $100 million. Additionally, only Pitch Perfect 2 really topped expectations. May 2015 kept pace with May of 2014, more or less. June doesn't have any films as strong as Age of Ultron, but there are two films that should have no trouble getting to $200 million. Those two films are Jurassic World and Inside Out and I'm not sure which one will turn out to be the biggest hit of the month. Last June, the biggest hit was Transformers: Age of Extinction, but both Jurassic World and Inside Out should top that film, albeit by small margins. On the other hand, last June had four other films that reached $100 million, while this time around only Spy! and Ted 2 have a real shot at that milestone. 2015 is stronger at the top, but has weaker depth. It will be interesting to see if 2015 will keep pace with 2014 over the course of the full month.
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January 1st, 2015
2014 is over and for the most part, December was a soft ending to a weak year. This is bad news for two reasons. Firstly, it means the overall box office is still soft and it is unlikely that January will start strong. Secondly, last January was a great month, thanks in part to Frozen and other holdovers. The slump can't last forever and Taken 3 should help 2015 get off to a reasonably fast start and it even has a shot at $100 million. American Sniper got off to a really fast start in limited release, so it too could be a hit when it expands wide. By comparison, last January was led by Ride Along, but there were only two other films that didn't completely bomb. I want to say 2015 will start out on a winning note, but given the box office losing streak, it will likely pay to be pessimistic.
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April 6th, 2014
It is a busy week on the home market with five wide releases / films that expanded wide among the new releases. This includes The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, which is dominating the chart with four of the top six new releases. Of those four releases, the 3D Combo Pack is the best deal. August: Osage County earned a couple of Oscar nominations, which should help it sell well, but the Blu-ray Combo Pack isn't quite Pick of the Week material. There are some other releases that are definitely worth picking up, for smaller target audiences. I Am Divine on DVD should please fans of the character, but I'm not sure there's enough of them out there to give it Pick of the Week. Finally, Sofia the First: The Floating Palace on DVD is a must have for young girls, and quite a few young boys, but the appeal isn't wide enough justify being a Pick of the Week. In the end, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug on 3D Combo Pack is the safest choice.
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April 5th, 2014
The Paranormal Activity has run for five years. The first film cost just $15,000 to make ($450,000 after post-production) and earned more than $100 million domestically and nearly $200 million worldwide. Obviously the studio started rushing out sequels. Unfortunately, some of the later sequels failed to win over critics and it "struggled" at the box office. (It made $86 million worldwide on a $5 million production budget.) The latest film in the franchise, Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, is a spin-off of the original story and the first Paranormal Activity not released around Halloween. In fact, it was released in January, which is normally a dumping ground for films. On the other hand, there have been quite a few horror films to do relatively well early in the year in the past few years. Was this one of those successes? Or was it really dumped into theaters because the studio had no faith in the film?
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January 7th, 2014
The box office wasn't as boisterous as anticipated and this is partially due to the seasonal storm that hit the east coast. This is also partially due to weaker than expected numbers for Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, which only managed second place in its debut. This allowed Frozen to return to top spot on the chart, even though it was a little weaker than expected. The overall box office fell 27% from last weekend down to $141 million. Compared to last year, the box office was down 4%, which isn't a good result, but it is also not terrible. Had The Marked Ones merely matched expectations, it would have been a virtual tie.
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January 5th, 2014
Given the weather conditions in half the country, this weekend couldn't have a more appropriate winner at the box office. Disney's Frozen takes top honors again in its 7th weekend in release after previously topping the chart the weekend of December 6th. The film is projected to earn $20.72 million this weekend, making it only the fourth film ever to earn more than $20 million at this stage in its theatrical run. Avatar, Titanic and Home Alone are the other three (and see full list of 7th weekends here). Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones was pushed into second spot with a decent $18.2 million opening.
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January 2nd, 2014
Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones is the only wide release opening on the first weekend of the year. The long running franchise will have to battle a weaker release date, franchise fatigue, and several holdovers that are still going strong. It still has a good shot at first place, as does Frozen. Frozen could win the weekend, with the help of families going out to the movies one last time before school starts again. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug probably won't extend its winning streak, but it should still be pull in quite a bit of money over the weekend. Last year the year started with Texas Chainsaw 3D earning more than $20 million. Django Unchained also topped $20 million over the weekend, albeit by the tiniest margin. We might have two $20 million films this weekend as well, with as many as five additional films earning more than $10 million. If 2014 doesn't win in the year-over-year comparison, it should at least be close.
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January 1st, 2014
It's the first month of the new year, but the biggest hit might be a film released in December. Last month ended on a slow note with all five Christmas day releases failing to become hits, some more than others. (It's a little too soon to tell if The Wolf of Wall Street or The Secret Life of Walter Mitty will do well enough to break even any time soon, but neither is a serious hit.) There are still some December releases that will likely remain on the charts through the opening weekends of January, while there are some films that opened in limited release last month with a scheduled wide release this month. Of the purely January releases, I would guess Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit will be the biggest hit. Even then, it won't live up to the previous films in the franchise, even if you don't take inflation into account. Most of the rest of the new releases will be happy if they can become midlevel hits. Last January was led by Mama, which earned more than $70 million. I think Shadow Recruit will top that figure at the box office, while there are a similar number of likely box office bombs opening this year as there were last year. 2014 could start out ahead of 2013's pace, but it likely won't be a huge difference either way.
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December 27th, 2013
It's the first Box Office Prediction contest of the year and it is an easy week to pick a target film, as the only wide release is Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones. Paranormal Activity is an established franchise, but this is the first film in the series not to open wide in October, so it will be interesting to see how moviegoers reach. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), regardless if they go over or not, will win a signed poster for The Legend of Hercules, signed by Kellan Lutz.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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March 19th, 2013
It is a very healthy week on the home market, at least at the top, as there are a number of big hits and Awards Season contenders. The biggest of these is The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. The film didn't live up to expectations, but it is still worth picking up, especially if you've made the leap to 3D. There are also a couple of Awards Season contenders coming out this week, but I'm waiting for the screeners for both of them. Les Miserables has generated a lot of praise, but also some harsh criticisms. On the other hand, Zero Dark Thirty was one of the best movies of the year and even sight unseen, the Blu-ray Combo Pack is the Pick of the Week.
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March 17th, 2013
Paranormal Activity has become the annual Halloween tradition, but there is reason to believe the moviegoing public is growing tired of the franchise. Paranormal Activity 4 made barely more in total than Paranormal Activity 3 earned during its opening weekend. (That said, Paranormal Activity 5 is already in the works, so the studio is still happy). Was the drop in box office numbers just a result franchise fatigue? Or was there a reason people aren't showing up anymore?
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November 15th, 2012
For the third weekend in a row, Skyfall remained in first place on the international chart with $89.08 million on 11,909 screens in 80 markets for a total of $429.63 million. This is the biggest international total for the franchise and it is very close to topping the worldwide total of all of the pre-Daniel Craig Bond films. Worldwide, the film has $520.19 million and is on pace to add at least $200 million more, likely $300 million to its worldwide total before it is done. There were no major market openings this weekend, but the film did become the biggest non-3D release in the U.K. with $114.50 million, including $16.61 million on 589 screens this past weekend. It is fifth on the all-time chart in that market, but it likely overtook Toy Story 3 ($116 million) and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 ($117 million) already. Up next is Titanic at $127 million and Avatar at $149 million. I wouldn't be willing to bet money it would become the all time leader, but I also wouldn't bet money against it.
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